郭明錤：MacBook將被砍單約15%
天風國際知名分析師郭明錤預測，配備Apple Silicon處理器的蘋果(AAPL.US)MacBook機種在2022年上半年的出貨量可能將被砍單約15%，並歸納出3個原因，包括：1) 零組件供應短缺、2) 後新冠肺炎疫情的需求結構改變、與 3) 新舊產品轉換。
1. 該分析師下修2021年上半年 MacBook出貨量約15%，並預期對供應鏈的影響將自1Q22中期開始。
2. MacBook砍單原因之一爲零組件短缺。該分析師認爲短缺最嚴重的零組件是電源IC，當中交期已達52周的TI最久。
3. 後新冠疫情時代的需求結構改變也會影響MacBook需求，關鍵在於WFH (working from home) 需求下滑與購買力因通貨膨脹而下降。
4. 該分析師預測配備新Apple Silicon的MacBook Air將在2Q22末期或3Q22初期進入量產，因2Q22爲產品轉換期故對MacBook訂單有影響。
Apple Silicon/MacBook砍單對供應鏈的影響中，該分析師高度關注此事件對ABF載板的競爭影響。因此預期欣興將在2022年上半年更加積極爭取非Apple的ABF載板訂單，當中南電爲最可能受到影響的供應商。
1. 在MacBook供應鏈中，目前市場預期成長展望最高的零組件爲ABF載板，故投資風險較高。
2. 欣興爲Apple Silicon ABF載板獨家供應商。該分析師預期欣興將在2022年上半年更積極爭取非Apple的ABF載板訂單，以提升擴產後的產能利用率。
3. 市場低估欣興擴產幅度，意味着市場也同時低估ABF載板產業的競爭。欣興在2020與2021年的資本支出分別約爲NT$240億與340億元，大部分用於擴充ABF產能。欣興在2020年的ABF載板產能同比提升約10-15%，故合理推估2021年的產能同比提升至少爲15–20%，高於市場預期的約10%。
4. 因AMD(AMD.US)爲ABF載板關鍵客戶之一，故該分析師認爲對欣興提高產能利用率最有效率的策略就是取得更多AMD訂單，而這對南電將有最直接的影響。
其他PC品牌廠商也可能會遭遇Apple遇到的“零組件供應短缺”與“後新冠疫情的需求結構改變”的挑戰，故MacBook砍單可能是ABF載板投資風險提升的早期指標。
1. 該分析師預期受到PC/筆記型計算機產業也會面臨Apple遭遇的挑戰，故2022年PC/筆記型計算機出貨量將同比衰退10–15% ，高於市場共識的0–10%。
2. 因超過50%的ABF載板用於PC/筆記型計算機，又主要ABF載板企業擴產幅度在2021與2022平均爲同比15–20%或以上，代表ABF載板供需缺口將自2022年開始見到顯著改善。該分析師相信ABF載板訂單能見度在2022年仍在，但交期 (lead time) 因供需缺口改善故最快自4Q21開始將顯著較2020與2021年上半年縮短，意味着ABF載板供應商的競爭程度將提升並導致同比成長放緩。
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