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《大行報告》大摩:內地若持續進行限產 料拖低第四季GDP增長1個百分點
阿思達克 09-28 15:01
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,若中國持續因限電帶來限產,將令第四季GDP增長減少1個百分點,中央或需要作政策微調和更有系統地減排。該行預計,減排將令9至12月的粗鋼產量按年減少9%,同時令7%的鋁產能停頓,全國29%的水泥生產受到影響,預計紙和玻璃將會是下兩個生產受到影響的行業,對基建項目的阻礙,將削弱第四季的逆週期寬鬆措施的效用。 大摩說,在9月至少有5個省實施限電,令生產突然停頓,主要原因是中國減少碳排放的倡議,不過適逢疫情後出口帶動工業擴張,大部分省份達成減排目標的進度落後,因而採運動式執行,以達到減排目標。該行說,煤採掘限制及水力發電不足,也導致供電不足。
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