未公佈的歐洲央行通脹預期數據提高了其加息概率
格隆匯9月17日丨據英國金融時報,根據未公佈的內部情境預期,歐洲央行預計到2025年將實現其2%的通脹目標。該模型還表明歐央行有望在兩年多的時間內加息。部分投資者預計歐洲央行2023年底前加息,據兩位知情人士透露,歐洲央行的長期通脹前景似乎證實了這一假設。這將至少比大多數經濟學家預期的歐洲央行加息時間提前一年。歐洲央行通常只公佈對未來三年的經濟預期,每季度更新一次。但其工作人員還編制了“中期參考情景”,該情景展望針對未來五年,通常不會公開。此外,歐洲央行首席經濟學家連恩還告訴德國經濟學家,情景展望表明通脹將在3年預測期結束後不久反彈至2%。對此歐洲央行拒絕置評。
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