永磁企業爲何也將充分受益於稀土價格上行？
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中泰有色謝鴻鶴
永磁企業爲何也將充分受益於稀土價格上行？——中泰金屬觀察（2021-8-10）
近期，稀土價格快速上行，氧化鐠釹價格由46.55→61.85萬元/噸，漲幅達到33%；氧化鋱由612.5→787.5萬元/噸，漲幅達到29%。部分投資者較爲擔心稀土磁材企業是否會受損，但歷史數據表現與這一擔心迥異。
先從釹鐵硼材料配分入手，釹鐵硼主要成分爲鐠釹（29%-32.5%）、鐵（63.95%-68.95%）、硼（1.1-1.2%）等，原材料成本約佔80%左右，其中稀土元素（鐠釹、鏑、鋱）佔原材料成本的90%以上，稀土元素的價格上漲會對釹鐵硼企業的原料成本產生直接影響。
但我們發現，稀土價格持續一個季度及以上的上漲，釹鐵硼也會進入一輪漲價週期，並且利潤也會不斷改善。如圖表5所示，1）2010-2011年上行週期，稀土價格較釹鐵硼提前約一個季度上漲，釹鐵硼價格由10.75→62.8萬元/噸，漲幅接近5倍，釹鐵硼企業單噸利潤最高點接近20萬元/噸；2）2017年6月-2017年9月稀土上行週期，釹鐵硼價格上漲同樣滯後於稀土價格約3個月左右，釹鐵硼由13.5→17.5萬元/噸，漲幅約30%，由於稀土上行週期持續較短，磁材價格上漲持續性同樣較差；3）2020年10月-至今稀土上行週期，與之前週期類似，釹鐵硼價格由11.35→24.0萬元/噸，漲幅爲111%，隨着磁材價格的上漲，釹鐵硼企業單噸利潤也逐漸得到擴大。
這是因爲，磁材價格一般按照前一月稀土原料成本和毛利率水平覈定售價，並且採用月度或者季度調價的模式，即釹鐵硼價格變動略滯後於稀土價格一個季度左右時間，且受益於低價稀土原材料庫存的影響，磁材企業在稀土價格上行週期，毛利率同樣會放大（例如正海磁材2011年和2017年Q2-Q3毛利率變動）。
當然，對於稀土永磁企業來說，最核心的還是產品結構的豐富和改善。但無須擔心稀土價格上漲對永磁企業的影響，由於稀土永磁對下遊是無可替代的功能性材料，並且成本佔比較低；依靠較強的成本傳導能力和毛利率定價模式，釹鐵硼企業不僅僅會受益於量，也會進入價的高景氣週期。
風險提示：疫情風險、產業政策波動風險、稀土價格大幅波動風險、競爭格局惡化風險、成本佔比測算風險等。
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