谁在买入REITs?
本文来自格隆汇专栏: 中信证券研究,作者:陈聪、张全国、李金哲
首批REITs中,保险资金是除原始权益人的战略配售的重要来源,券商自营类资金则是REITs约71亿网下申购资金的主要来源。9家REITs定价均低于询价平均价和中位数,定价富有吸引力。我们预计,未来随着资管类资金投资范围逐步放大,一个更趋成熟的REITs市场,将吸引私募、券商、保险、外资等各类投资者参与活跃交易。
▍首批公募REITs认购踊跃,有效认购金额覆盖倍数达6.5倍。
近日,首批公募基础设施REITs完成网下询价。根据最终的定价结果,首批公募REITs合计募资达到314.03亿元。发行总量中,约有222.24亿元通过战略配售,占比70.77%,其中125.93亿为原始权益人和关联方,分别锁定36-60个月,剩余部分96.31亿元锁定12个月。有70.97亿元,通过机构投资者网下申购,占比22.60%;剩余20.79亿元面向公众发售,占比6.62%。在已经进行的网下询价中,9家REITs合计获得516.87亿元资金认购,其中有效认购金额457.45亿元,相当于募资额的6.45倍。
▍网下申购机构投资者来源广泛,预计集中度将更加分散。
从首批申购的投资者来看,投资者来源广泛,包含公募基金、保险资管、私募基金、信托、券商自营、券商资管、QFII等机构投资者。但目前的申购来源较为集中,其中券商自营认购总金额达292.60亿元,占比56.6%,其次是保险,认购金额达81.00亿元,占比15.7%;公募专户、信托、私募基金、券商资管则分别认购了8.2%、7.6%、6.8%和5.2%。我们认为,首批发行认购集中度较高,与产品新创,券商自营的资金投向较为灵活有关,而资管类资金有固定的投资范围条款,还需后续逐步调整。但总体来说,公募REITs与长线寻求稳定收益的资金高度契合,未来保险、银行理财等投资者比重有望进一步提高。
▍发行定价优惠,进一步增强产品吸引力。
首批产品发行的最终定价均低于询价平均价和中位数,这是在发行方主动控制下的结果。而9家REITs最终发行定价亦均在询价区间的中高区域,这一点基本符合预期。一是体现了投资者对公募REITs本身产品的认购热情,二是REITs发行过程中理性的定价,也有利于投资者实现更佳回报,增强了首批产品的投资价值,有助于公募REITs市场的长远发展。
▍持有型资产的认购预期分红回报率理性,政策提供足额投资者保护。
首批产品的发行中,有期限的收费权、运营权资产,根据久期不同,投资者认购的21年分红回报率在8%-12%之间。而对于长期经营的持有型资产,投资者的认购预期回报率在4.0%左右。稳定性较强,提价空间大的物流仓储类资产,更存在4.0%以下的收益分红报价。这预示着投资者认可REITs的股权属性和提价能力,二级市场的交易倍数可能更高,而政策要求发行回报率在4%以上,无疑是提供了足额的政策保护,进一步提高了REITs的交投热情。
▍战略配售认购积极,不同类型机构偏好差异明显。
我们将申购的战略投资者分为七类:保险、公募专户、私募、信托、券商资管、券商自营以及其他机构。从目前申购来源分布来看,保险类战略投资者申购金额最高,达33.36亿元,占比达到34.64%,其中,合计申购金额前两名机构为泰康人寿、中国平安,分别占保险类合计申购金额的41%及27%;其他机构、券商自营申购金额次之,占总申购金额比分别为25.40%、16.86%。从各类机构资金配置比例来看,保险机构、私募、信托均最看好物流仓储,该类REITs的认购金额占总金额的比例分别达到59.75%、49.44%、84.05%;公募专户、券商资管、券商自营资金第一大投向都为收费公路,认购金额占比在48.17%-49.30%,偏好差异较为明显。
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