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社科院官员:通胀不会成为人行改变货币政策方向主要动力
阿思达克 05-31 09:56
中国社科院金融研究所副所长张明近日做客「中国财富管理50人论坛」时表示,大宗商品单边暴涨阶段已结束,未来价格将会转向双向、频繁、宽幅波动的调整阶段,意味着未来中国面临的输入型通胀压力将有所减弱。

张明预期,未来三个月内PPI按年增速可能会见顶,并在下半年开始温和回落,CPI按年增速或在下半年温和上行,并预计今年全年CPI增速1.5%左右,PPI增速4%-5%上下,通胀水平总体可控。而通货膨胀不会成为人民银行改变货币政策方向的主要驱动力。

张明提到,今年房地产和基建投资增速显着上升的可能性不大,由此带动的物价上行压力也相对较小。目前疫後经济复苏具有不充分、不平衡特徵,财政政策会显着收紧,地方债风险不断暴露、违约事件频发,在此背景下,货币政策要相机决策、审慎行事,既要珍惜货币政策难得的正利率空间,又要警惕过快收紧可能造成的风险。(ta/w)

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