《大行報告》瑞信下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至304元 評級「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表報告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股價已反映負面因素,加上估值不高,現時的股價具吸引力,而明確反壟斷調查及經濟處罰是短期股價催化劑,下調目標價由323港元至304港元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
報告稱,第四財季阿里巴巴CMR+佣金料按年增長37%,商品交易額(GMV)按年增長34%;在併合高鑫零售(06808.HK)及低基數下,總收入料按年增長56%,至1,788.4億元人民幣。當中,淘寶的服裝和家具類交易額應該會表現出色,消費電子產品和快速消費品也會有所支持。其他內地零售商業收入,包括Freshippo、Sun-Art、天貓超市、考拉等預計將按年增長26%。雲計算收入則有望保持按年健康增長50%。
報告提到,第四財季非通用會計準則EBITA利潤率預計為13.9%,或按年下跌3個百分點。由於對淘寶交易、直播、雜貨等新投入,核心經調整EBITA利潤率可能繼續下跌。而餓了麼加大用於吸引用戶和改善消費者體驗的投資,將導致核心商務新業務虧損擴大24%,至73億元人民幣。
不過,瑞信認為,阿里加大投資力度是捍衛市場份額的必要之舉,並能利用自身流量、物流投資及商戶連接優勢,把握疫情後加速向線上消費轉變的機會,因此下調阿里2021至2022財年息稅及攤銷前利潤(EBITA)預測。
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