碳中和下的煤炭：无近忧，需远虑
本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：祖国鹏
“能源双控”政策预计“十四五”将进一步抑制煤炭消费增速，煤炭消费在2025年前后实现达峰。在产能低位扩张的背景下，“十四五”期间行业尚可维持供需平衡，但远期看在“碳中和”推进过程中，煤炭需求大幅下滑不可避免，长期而言，行业中成本曲线最低端的龙头公司或率先转型成功的公司有望胜出。
▍煤炭消费或在2025年前后达峰，远期有需求压力。
从目前能源结构看，煤炭消费占比达到57%，在“能源双控”的政策作用下，预计2025年煤炭消费将达到42亿吨左右的峰值，之后逐步下降，2025～2030年的年均复合增速为-1.51%。随着新能源发电和储能技术的全面成熟以及下游工业的脱碳，预计2060年“碳中和”实现的情形下，煤炭消费量将降至约3～5亿吨的水平，保留的煤炭消费主要是化工行业用煤以及能源应急响应的需求。
▍对中短期景气不必悲观，“十四五”供需仍可实现平衡。
尽管长期煤炭需求面临压力，煤价中枢也有下行压力。但未来五年行业需求仍有小幅增长空间，而供给侧在新增产能核准节奏、环保和安监的约束下，或可保持低速增长，“十四五”期间行业可以维持供需平衡的状态，部分年份也可能出现供需错配的情况导致煤价上涨。
▍行业分化或进一步加剧，转型路径仍待明晰。
在“碳达峰”迈向“碳中和”的过程中，除了矿井资源衰竭带来的自然退出外，需求下降或将引发煤价下行——亏损产能增加——高成本产能退出——供需平衡等一轮轮周期循环，行业企业的分化或不断加剧，最终低成本的龙头公司长期胜出，获得寡头地位，实现超额利润。目前煤炭企业已开始应对转型，或通过设立能源转型投资基金布局投资新能源，或在煤化工领域继续向精细化工产业链延伸，或通过焦化产业链切入氢能源等领域，但从目前实践看，煤企转型还处于尝试阶段，尚未形成明确的转型路径。
▍风险因素：
政策制定的减排目标加快，加速煤炭需求下降。企业转型成本过高。
▍投资策略：关注长周期的“剩者为王”以及转型中获得“先发优势”的公司。
近几年能源结构转型和长期需求减速的预期是压制煤炭板块估值的主要因素。“碳中和”又会强化这一预期，板块长期估值整体难以有效提升。但是低开采成本的龙头公司在长期周期波动中可以强化优势地位，同时长期资本开支下降，现金流累积充裕，长期依然有价值逻辑，中国神华、陕西煤业是位于行业成本曲线最低端的动力煤企业，山西焦煤预计长期可巩固低成本的炼焦煤龙头地位。另外，在转型的公司中，美锦能源转型氢能板块的力度较大，有望形成先发优势，值得长期关注。
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