摩根士丹利：微盟集团(02013.HK)SaaS业务符合市场预期 上调目标价至25港元
摩根士丹利日前发布研报，指出微盟集团(02013.HK)2020年报中，关键指标SaaS收入和营销毛收入均与我们的预测一致。摩根士丹利认为微盟在SaaS中持久的高增长以及其在市场上取得成功的战略的良好执行，上调目标价至25港元。
SaaS业务保持快速增长
摩根士丹利表示，微盟集团SaaS业务保持快速增长，SaaS收入在上半年可比基础上实现了43％的同比增长，符合我们的预期。智慧零售是主要增长动力，贡献了2020年SaaS订阅解决方案收入的20％，占比对比2019年提高超过10个百分点。由于新冠疫情影响，SaaS流失率从2019年的22％上升到2020年的26％。集团管理层认为这只是暂时的问题，在更多的大客户的支撑下，预计2021年会有所改善。由于业务的调整和客户升级，SaaS业务的ARPU在2020年下半年增长了20％。微盟的商业云产品可帮助商户对接多种流量渠道，包括微信，抖音和快手。
精准营销现金流表现好
微盟集团精准营销的毛收入与我们的预测一致，现金流表现良好，107亿人民币的精准营销毛收入与我们的预测持平。微盟根据其TSO(流量——SaaS——运营)全链路营销战略，将净额法重新归类为数字商业中的商家解决方案。微盟集团相信，通过广告带来的流量将被商家视为增值服务。
2021年展望财务：微盟集团预计SaaS相关业务将增长50%，在可比基础上，新收购的海鼎将增长20%。预计智慧零售业绩贡献在2021年将达到30%，2025年将达到50%。产品方面微盟集团计划在2021年推出一系列新产品，包括微盟云PaaS产品、垂直解决方案智慧美业和智慧酒店、CRM产品销氪、微盟营销云升级等，同时集团继续加大研发力度，丰富产品以及实施TSO战略。
摩根士丹利下调针对目标市场的净利润假设，并将SOTP估值从2021年12月前推至2022年3月，将微盟集团目标价格上升到25港元。
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