郭思治: 恒指能否重越50天线及10天线颇为关键
香港股票分析师协会副主席郭思治称,昨(10日)大市先急升後放缓,恒指早市先大幅高开482点至29,255点,但其後买盘不继,在沽压再度涌现下,市势卒逐步回软,恒指更一度倒跌63点至28,710点,惟维稳买盘再现,故市势得以回升,只是在动力不配下,大市之升势一直受规限,恒指最後报收28,907点,仅微升134点,而全日总成交金额亦只得1,904亿元,从走势上看,以恒指报收在28,907点计,技术上仍受制於50天线(29,023点),10天线(29,204点)及20天线(29,774点)之下,即是说,论形态,大市暂仍处反覆欲试底之格局,而所指的底,暂该为3月9日之低位28,326点及1月29日之低位28,259点,此小双底之防守性颇关键,因大市只要能续稳守此小双底之上,即表示大市虽仍续处中期调整的形态中,惟技术上已获初步支持。
大市已开始步入3月份之中旬,而直到目前一刻止计,本月大市暂仍是由3日之高位29,912点跌至9日之低位28,326点,即月内之波幅已达1,586点,由於一个月之高低位是不该同时出现於五个交易日之内,故在本月余下之交易日,技术上该有更大之波幅点出现,即大市如不能穿头,剩下之可能性便是破脚,谈到此点,首先需留意的是恒指能否重越50天线(29,023点)及10天线(29,204点)。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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