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经合组织调高全球今明两年GDP增长预测至5.6%及4% 美国今年GDP增长预测倍增至6.5%
阿思达克 03-10 08:50
经合组织(OECD)於《中期经济展望》报告中,调高全球今明两年GDP增长预测至5.6%及4%,显高於去年12月预测仅分别增长4.2%及3.7%。此外,将美国今明两年GDP预测由原先仅恢复增长3.2%及续增3.5%,上调至恢复增长6.5%及续增4%;将欧元区今明两年GDP预测由原先分别恢复增长3.6%及续增3.3%,上调至增长3.9%及3.8%;将英国今明两年GDP预测由原先分别恢复增长4.2%及续增4.1%,上调至增长5.1%及4.7%;将日本今明两年GDP预测由原先增长2.3%及1.5%,上调至增长2.7%及1.8%。同时,预计印度今年GDP料恢复增长12.6%;但将中国今年GDP预测由原先增长8%,下调至增长7.8%,料明年增长4.9%。

报告指,受惠於美国大规模财政刺激经济方案和各国央行推出更多宽松措施,以及新冠疫苗接种普遍等利好因推动素,全球经济到今年中有望恢复到新冠疫情爆发前水平,较去年预测时间提前六个月。不过,目前全球经济增速能否改善,仍取决於注射疫苗速度有多快、限制措施何时解除及新冠病毒变种是否受到控制。因此,认为各国应该继续维持非常宽松的货币政策,以及政策首要任务是确保所有必要资源都用於疫苗生产和全面接种部署。

经合组织预测,美国到2022年底经济规模将超过疫情爆发前水平,但认为G20中,只有土耳其能达到类似状况。经合组织警告,全球经济增长正变得更加不均衡,资本正由低增长新兴国家流向高增长国家,这将带来潜在的破坏活动。不过,相信央行有办法处理市场波动,他们可提供资金支援新兴市场。

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