东方证券：给予联想集团(0992.HK)买入评级，目标价13.12港元
格隆汇3月8日丨东方证券3月7日发研报，首次给予联想集团(0992.HK)买入评级，目标价13.12港元，较3月5日的收盘价9.98港元有31.47%的潜在上升空间。
核心观点如下：
全球PC龙头，服务器、手机业务份额居前：公司是全球PC龙头，2020年第四季度全球市场份额达25.2%，并且在 EMEA地区(欧洲、中东、非洲)首次超越惠普取得份额第一。移动业务方面，公司聚焦具有竞争优势的地区和国家，智能手机在拉丁美洲位居份额第二，在北美市场第五。X86服务器在全球主要地区份额也稳居前五。
远程学习、办公等非接触式场景带来PC需求持续性增量：手机、平板电脑定位愈发清晰，对PC替代效应减弱，疫情下居家时间的延长增加了消费者对PC的青睐，2020年全球PC出货超3亿台。长期来看，远程学习、办公模式将向常态化发展，教育领域、企业对 PC 采购量将持续快速增长；此外，众多新兴非接触式业态将进一步打开PC行业发展空间。目前，受限于零部件供给不足，PC需求仍有较大潜力待释放，全球PC渠道端存货水平亦处于低位，随着供给端改善，PC市场规模将继续提升。
手机业务扭亏为盈，IDC业务亏损持续收窄：手机业务近几个季度亏损持续收窄，最近季度已实现扭亏为盈，未来伴随5G换机和公司旗舰机型的推出有望持续改善。IDC业务伴随海内外主要云计算厂商资本开支回暖，公司在本财年前三季度实现营收47亿美元，同比增长10%；第三季度亏损收窄至3300万美元，同比亏损减少1400万美元。未来云计算的高景气将带动公司IDC业务持续成长。
智能化转型带来成长新动能：公司提出3S战略，发力智能物联网、智能基础架构、行业智能。智能物联网领域，公司以 PC 为轴向各类智能终端拓展；智能基础架构领域，针对不同客户提供不同数据中心产品组合；行业智能领域，可为企业客户提供全域智能化解决方案，已应用于汽车、能源、制造等多个领域。随着物联网、工业互联网的发展，公司智能化业务将持续成长。
财务预测与投资建议
公司在科创板上市的计划引起境内投资者关注。我们预测公司FY20/21-FY22/23年每股收益分别为0.09、0.11、0.11美元，根据可比公司21年(对应公司 FY21/22)16 倍市盈率水平，给予目标价13.12港币(美元港币汇率采用 1:7.75)，首次给予买入评级。
风险提示：PC行业景气度下行、行业竞争加剧、云计算景气度不达预期、零部件缺货风险、分业务利润率不达预期。
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