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微盟集团(02013.HK)跟踪报告:微盟全面布局各大流量平台,畅享新发展模式红利,维持“买入”评级,目标价22.98人民币
格隆汇 01-18 09:38

机构:西部证券

评级:买入

目标价:22.98人民币

微盟最近接入QQ小程序、QQ浏览器、视频号、支付宝能为微盟带来什么?微盟不断拓展挖掘私域+公域流量,全面布局各大平台,畅享新发展模式带来的红利。微盟不断为商户挖掘平台流量,探寻新的发展模式,为商户提供多渠道选择,多渠道的打通,也使得众商户可根据自身的商品、用户属性,进行多渠道布局、个性化营销。

微盟微商城和智慧零售提价对微盟营收影响多大?我们对微盟提价前后进行敏感性测试,预计提价后会对微盟营收产生5%左右的影响。假设微盟80%为基础版用户,20%为标准版及以上的用户,微盟此次提价25%左右,80%部分不受影响,20%部分会对公司SaaS营收产生5%左右影响。

微盟的市占率未来能否继续提升?受益于私域电商的崛起、微盟在SaaS领域的不断拓展以及微盟自身的核心竞争力,未来微盟的市占率会进一步上升。1)私域电商的快速发展会进一步促进第三方SaaS厂商的更新迭代;2)微盟紧跟市场发展趋势,把握微信“视频化+电商化”发展两大方向、把握数字化零售,收购海鼎、把握社交平台走向,入驻各大私域公域平台,不断为商户引流;3)全面布局销售网络,同时高度注重人效、为商户全流程服务,广告深度绑定腾讯且彰显强大资本实力。

投资建议:我们预测公司2020年营收为22.75亿元,由于套餐提价,将公 司2021、2022年营收分别上调至34.63、52.76亿元,对应EPS分别为-0.15、0.26、0.42元。公司作为电商SaaS产业领域龙头,经营情况较好,给予公司2022年SaaS业务20倍PS,精准营销业务20倍PE,目标价22.98人民币,维持“买入”评级。

风险提示:新平台接入效果不及预期;SaaS产品更新迭代不及预期;产品提价客户粘性不及预期。

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