《大行報告》匯豐降阿里美股(BABA.US)目標價至329美元 評級「買入」
匯豐研究發表報告,指阿里(09988.HK)將於2月或3月公布截至去年12月底止第三財季業績,該行料收入按年升33%,經調整稅息及攤銷前盈利(EBITA)按年增長22%。匯豐稱,其核心商務毛利倒退幅度或大於該行預先預期,主因低利潤業務收入佔比擴大(如天貓及高鑫零售等);淘寶升級及新業務相關投資,如直播、社區團購及淘寶特價版。隨著阿里續為可持續增長投資,該行料毛利收縮趨勢將維持數個季度。該行下調阿里美股(BABA.US)目標價,以現金流折現率計,由375美元降至329美元,評級維持「買入」。
該行稱,阿里股價自去年高位累跌約30%,相信監管因素及市場對市佔流失的憂慮已大致反映。以平台商品交易額(GMV)計,首三財季阿里市佔擴張,達9,200億元人民幣,全財年目標逾1萬億元人民幣,據該行估算,遠多於京東(09618.HK)及拼多多(PDD.US)去年GMV數據。該行下調阿里2021及2022財年盈測分別3%及6%,但仍高於市場預計7%及1%。
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