波司登(3998.HK)：深挖品牌，深耕运营，深入打造效率年，给予“买入”评级
机构：天风证券
评级：买入
深入贯彻品销结合，深挖“大品牌、好品质、羽绒服代名词”品牌价值
波司登持续推动品销结合，品牌传播更加聚焦主推产品的展现和线上线下门店的导流。基于产品上市周期和主推产品设定传播规划和内容，使传播内容与消费者产生共鸣。通过代言人明星大片、明星街拍、产品植入、时尚博主和意见领袖(KOLs)对产品进行充分展示。同时在资源版块更聚焦种草平台，通过抖音、小红书等新媒体平台为线上线下门店进行充分引流，促进成交转化，提升销售业绩。
订单加大快反，有效控制库存，推动数字化创新
FY21 公司延续直营和批发订货完全分开的模式，极大地优化对直营门店及经销商订货结构的调控，保持稳定的理性订货。自 2018 年始，公司对每年首次冬羽绒订货会的比例进行一定的管控；FY21 订货会首次订单比例继续下降到不超过 30%，而余下的订单部分则根据旺季市场实际反馈和需求进行补单。
库存管理方面，波司登致力于持续优化库存，维持健康的库存水平。FY21H1存货账面价值 26.05 亿元，同比减少 6.06%，较 FY20 财年减少 4.4%。
供应链数字化持续创新，通过产销协同打通前端销售、中端库存与后端供应链生产外包的流程。一方面提升供应链对前端销售的快反供应能力，及时匹配消费端需求；另一方面与核心供应商实现数据对接，提升原辅材料仓库的精细化运营能力，有利于原辅材料的及时供应和库存控制。
冷冬速冬晚春延长销售旺季，激发换装需求
根据近期中央气象台的发布,“冷冬+速冬”或成今年冬季最大特点，本次“跨年”寒潮寒冷程度或将不亚于 2016 年。我们认为，一方面，快速降温将直接带动品牌服饰冬装销售，冬季作为传统销售旺季，受益本次寒潮及春节同比延后约三周，销售高峰时间将有效延长，带动销量增长同时有效降低库存;另一方面，20Q4 开始纺织服装产业链进全面入复苏，我国品牌服饰持续升级产品力，在设计功能时尚等方面不断突破，同时加强渠道及数字化建设，行业景气度有望借助冷冬及低基数快速恢复。
维持盈利预测，给予买入评级
公司是中国知名的羽绒服装品牌运营商，专心专注羽绒服领域，成为消费者公认的羽绒服专家，引领行业发展。目前旗下羽绒服品牌包括波司登、雪中飞、冰洁等，满足不同客户群体的需求及巩固其在中国市场的领导地位。其中，波司登品牌羽绒服连续 25 年（1995-2019 年）全国销量遥遥领先。我们预计 FY21-23 年波司登归母净利润 15.31/18.49/21.71 亿元；预计EPS 为 0.14/0.17/0.20 元，对应 P/E 为 23/19/16 倍。
风险提示：提价不及预期，销售不及预期，降温不及预期，核心高管流失。
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