通信行业12月动态报告：云网融合大势所趋，通信产业链深度绑定受益，维持“推荐”评级
机构：中国银河证券
评级：推荐
核心观点
流量增长是驱动行业成长根本因素。技术进步与应用创新持续推动流量需求增高，通信行业成长的根本性驱动力持续增强，流量增长趋势前景较为乐观。
传统通信叠加互联网基建，应用场景拓宽提升行业市场空间。传统通信规模巨大，新周期内景气度回升在即。互联网基础设施在传统电信领域外另一超大规模市场，互联网基础设施的建设为通信行业提供新引擎，助力行业发展提速。
有线连接无线，技术进步加持传输方式扩展，打开通信新市场。光进铜退，有线通信获益流量剧增。终端与应用齐爆发，无线通信“质”“量”提升。
云网融合大势所趋，通信产业链深度绑定全面受益。未来互联网应用在要求海量连接的同时，更需要具备确定性服务的能力（即质量确定、海量连接、质量可定制）。因此，网络与传输是关键要素，两者需深度融合、互相补充。我们认为云网融合为将来大势所趋，设备商、运营商与服务应用提供商多环节深度融合，通信产业链有望全面受益。
关注12月运营商重点招标情况：2020年12月国内三大运营商招标主要包括智能家庭网关、5GSA核心网DPI设备、无线网主设备、核心路由交换设备及室外光缆等。
投资建议：建议关注互联网基础设施和5G板块。2020年起我国进入5G建设加速期，主设备商受益确定性强，建议关注中兴通讯（000063.SZ）和烽火通信（600498.SH）。此外，光纤光缆和基站需求有望随5G建网周期的开启而回升，建议关注估值具有安全边际的弹性标的中天科技（600522.SH），亨通光电（600487.SH）。互联网基础设施建设建议关注光环新网（300383.SZ）。互联网基础设施和5G推进双领域受益的光通信行业建议关注中际旭创（300308.SZ）、光迅科技（002281.SZ），天孚通信（300394.SZ）和新易盛（300502.SZ）。长期来看，自主可控通信关键芯片建议关注光迅科技（002281.SZ）。
风险提示
1、5G建设不及预期的风险；2、运营商资本开支不及预期的风险；3、互联网基础设施建设投资意愿下降的风险；4、外部贸易摩擦加剧的风险。
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