医药行业2021年投资策略：后疫情时期的医药发展新格局，维持“增持”评级
机构：山西证券
评级：增持
核心观点：
疫情与流动性成为今年资本市场关键词。2020 年医药行业上涨46.91%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 26.20 个百分点，在 28 个申万一级行业中排名第四。疫情与流动性成为今年资本市场的关键词，为了应对疫情对经济带来的影响，各国央行大量投放流动性，从而带来全球乃至国内长期流动性宽松的局面。因此我们看到，在疫情“新常态”下，医药行业作为疫情受益程度较高的板块获得明显超额收益，而以食品饮料为代表的基本面有着较高确定性的板块在流动性充裕的背景下迎来一波明显的估值抬升。
疫情虽未结束，但春天已经到来。全球疫情仍在蔓延，以及国内疫情不断出现反复，新冠疫苗将是防控疫情最有效手段之一，我们相信疫苗的上市将使得这次新冠疫情得到真正控制。现在全球已有德国BioNTech 研发的新冠疫苗已在英国、加拿大等国家获批上市，美国FDA 发紧急授权允许辉瑞/BioNTech 的新冠疫苗用于在 16 岁及以上个体，而国内国药集团的灭活疫苗已在在巴林、阿联酋等国家获批上市，而国内也已提交上市申请，根据专家预计将于 12 月月底获批上市。
行业政策“常态化”，医保基金腾笼换鸟大势所趋。医保目录一年一次的动态调整通过及时谈判将高价值的创新药纳入医保目录，以“以量换价”方式加速了创新药的放量；自 2018 年底起，国内已陆续展开了三批四次带量采购，平均降幅均维持在 50%以上，近日第四批全国药品带量采购已经拉开帷幕，国家带量采购进入常态化；2020 年 10 月16 日，国家联合采购办公室发布《国家组织冠脉支架集中带量采购文件》，高值耗材全国集采正式拉开序幕。
创新药热潮持续，行业供给快速增加。2015 年以来，医药创新鼓励政策层出不穷，医药创新上升到国家高度，创新药研发迎来政策春风。随着科创板及港交所放开未盈利生物医药企业的上市以及创业板注册制的推出，资本市场中医药企业的供给快速增加，在市场资金有限的背景下投资只能优中选优，这就更加考验投资者甄选优质医药股的能 力。在国内创新药的热潮下一定要回归理性，要关注真正具有临床价值和创新属性的公司。对于一些“伪创新”以及所谓的“医药落后产能”将逐步边缘化以及淡出资本市场视线。
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