騰訊控股(00700.HK)2020年Q3財報點評：Q3淨利同比增長89%，手遊市佔率持續提升，維持“買入”評級，目標價644.96港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：644.96港元
核心觀點
公司 Q3 營收 1254.47 億，同比增長 29.01%，環比增長 9.02%。同比增長主要系頭部遊戲營收增加推動，環比增長主要系金融科技與企業服務驅動。公司 Q3 毛利率 45.16%，同比增長 1.47pp，環比下降 1.15pp。IFRS 歸母淨利潤 385.42 億元，同比上升 89.10%，環比上升 16.42%。Non-IFRS 歸母淨利潤 323.03 億元，同比增長 32.32%，環比增長 7.13%。
增值業務：Q3 收入 698.02 億元，同比增長 37.87%，環比增長 7.38%。毛利率 52.6%，同比增長 0.8pp，環比下降 1.1pp。手機遊戲收入：391.73 億元，同比增長 61.21%，環比增長 8.85%。受公司遊戲業務端轉手紅利持續，我們預測 Q4 上線手遊將帶來 15 億預算增量，持續推動手遊收入的增長。PC 遊戲收入：116.31 億元，同比上升 1.13%，環比上升 6.59%。社交網絡收入：283.80 億元，同比增長 28.85%，環比增長 6.24%。
網絡廣告業務：Q3 收入 213.51 億元，同比增長 16.25%，環比上升 15.09%；毛利率 50.92%，同比增長 2.16pp，環比下降 0.52pp。因增加廣告位等產品開啟廣告變現，預計 Q4 小程序廣告將持續增長帶動社交廣告穩步提升。? 金融科技及企業服務業務：Q3 收入 332.55 億元，同比增長 23.28%，環比增長 27.88%。由於商業支付和理財平台業務持續快速增長，我們預測 Q4金融科技及企業服務收入將維持增長態勢。
財務預測與投資建議
公司遊戲業務頭部手遊貢獻穩定收入、付費用户穩步提升，預計年底《CODM》、21 年《地下城與勇士》等高 DAU 端轉手遊的上線將進一步提振收入。廣告業務來看，受益於 21 年 S 級待播劇驅動品牌組招商，媒體廣告21年或能實現穩步增長。我們預計20/21/22年淨利潤為1213/1436/1734億元，對應 EPS 12.65/14.98/18.09 元，PE 39/33/27 倍。採用 SOTP 估值，給予目標價 644.96 港幣（544.22 人民幣），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
政策風險、遊戲不達預期風險、組織構架變革帶來的不確定性因素、投資標的收益波動不確定性、經濟週期波動影響、遊戲淨利率波動較大。
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