呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)：呷哺转型升级，湊湊打开第二增长曲线，维持“买入”评级
机构：东北证券
评级：买入
报告摘要：
呷哺转型升级，经营情况企稳回升。管理战略：2019 年公司对人才/产品/品牌策略进行全面改革升级。门店模型：通过打造呷哺 2.0、升级套餐、推广外卖、引入茶米茶等措施改善单店模型。从数据上看，2019 年的翻座率及增速、同店单店营收增速相对 2019 年上半年均有明显改善，未来经营情况有望企稳回升。呷哺未来会加密北方区域，拓展华中/华东/华南地区。预计呷哺 2020-2022 年净开门店分别为30/79/79 家，2019-2022 年收入 CAGR 为 8%。
湊湊进入快速开店期，是公司业绩增长的主要动力。湊湊定位中高端火锅，首创“火锅+茶憩”模式，主打产品、环境和茶饮，采用轻服务模式。湊湊属于网红门店，没有区域限制，在上海/广州/深圳/太原/香港等地经营情况表现出色。湊湊单店模型优于呷哺，成熟门店单店营收约 2000 万，经营利润率近 20%。预计湊湊开店空间为 958 家，2020-2022 年新开门店分别为 50/70/70 家；随着成熟门店占比提升，湊湊整体单店营收和经营利润率均有较大提升空间，预计 2019-2022年收入 CAGR 为 65%。
调味品拓宽渠道布局，加大产能建设。公司调味品上半年实现营收5710 万/+133.3%，开拓商铺 1.5 万家，下半年有望开拓商铺2 万家，全年收入有望达到 1.7 亿元，明后2 年仍然维持高速增长。2022 年公司天津产能释放，食品销售占比有望进一步提升。
盈利预测：中短期看呷哺改善/稳定开店和湊湊快速开店，长期看调味品快速增长。公司已经形成了呷哺/湊湊/调味品/呷煮呷烫四大品牌体系，未来将会接力式发展。预计公司 2020-2022 年归母净利润分别为 0.02/6.7/7.9 亿元，对应 PE分别为 5534/21/17 倍。采用分部估值法，给予呷哺/湊湊 2021 年 25/40 倍估值，对应股价为 22.18 港元，目标48%的上涨空间。维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：食品安全风险；疫情风险；门店扩张不达预期等
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