银行业2021年投资策略：意风向有变
机构：国信证券
经济复苏有望持续，货币政策和财政政策回归常态化
后疫情时代，投资、消费多点发力，我国经济复苏形势好于此前预期。同时，新冠疫苗研制取得重大进展，全球经济有望加速重启，我国经济将形成内外需共振。考虑到积极政策对经济推动的滞后性和经济增长内生性的逐步增强，我国经济复苏有望持续。在此大背景下，明年政策将更注重平衡好稳增长和去杠杆的关系，货币政策和财政政策将回归常态化，但不会大幅收紧和转向，因为经济仍未恢复到潜在增速。高基数影响下，预计 2021 年 M2 增速降到 8.6%，社融增速降到 10.3%。
银行监管从严，关注非标处置对信用环境的冲击
严监管已经常态化，银行日常检查继续从严，中小银行问题银行处置继续推进。另外，2021 年是大资管新规过渡期最后一年，新老产品清理进入攻坚时期，非标资产压缩会对社融增速带来一定的拖累。TLAC 监管对我国大行资本提出更高要求，我国中小银行资本不足问题加剧，银行将进一步加大资本补充力度，央行或加快创设新的资本补充工具。
预计 2021 年归母净利润同比增长 7.0%-9.0%
我国银行业已度过至暗时刻，从资产规模、净息差和资产质量三个主要驱动因素来看，（1）资产规模：预计 2021 年贷款增速降至 12.0%左右，总资产增速降至 10.0%左右；（2）净息差：预计明年一季度阶段性见底，之后就会趋于稳定甚至持续提升；（3）资产质量：不良暴露较经济周期具有明显的滞后性，加上我国经济增速仍未修复到潜在增长水平，部分企业经营风险仍较大，预计不良实际生成率到 2021 年下半年才可能见到明显的拐点，但此轮银行信用风险压力明显小于 2014-2015 年。同时，市场对于资产质量的悲观预期已度过最坏阶段，并且银行今年已充分计提拨备为不良暴露做好准备，预计上市银行未来不良处置压力不大。
投资建议及个股提示
上市银行基本面底部位置已逐渐显现，我们对明年银行基本面表现持乐观态度。当前银行板块估值处于历史低位附近，充分反映了市场对银行基本面的悲观预期，随着经济持续复苏悲观预期将有所修复。我们维持行业“超配”评级。个股方面，继续推荐长期成长性好、不良安全边际高的宁波银行、招商银行和常熟银行，同时推荐估值极低、基本面稳定的工商银行。
风险提示
宏观经济的不确实性；货币政策超预期收紧可能会使预测结果受到影响。
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