野村:旧物管公司较具吸引力 首选碧桂园服务(6098.HK)等3股
野村发表行业报告指,随著多间新物管公司上市,盈利增长的质素比以往显得更为重要。该行试从有机增长角度分析主要上市的物管公司,发现预测市盈增长率(PEG)较低及盈利增长质素较高的大型旧物管公司更具吸引力,行业首选碧桂园服务(6098.HK)、雅生活服务(3319.HK)及永升生活服务(1995.HK),均予买入评级。
野村表示,撇除收併购及假设来自企业增值服务有适度增长,料板块增长势头仍具韧力,2020-22年复合年增长率料达30%;而板块PEG亦处于1.29倍的吸引水平。其中,“旧”物管公司PEG为1.25倍,较新物管公司的1.36倍吸引;另外,大型物管公司的估值亦较小型物管公司被市场低估。
该行预期,今年来自收併购及关联交易等非有机增长将占物管公司纯利的31%,预期融创服务及雅生活服务来自非有机增长盈利贡献最多,并料物管公司于20至22年纯利复合年增长率有43%是来自非有机增长盈利。
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