《大行報告》麥格理降阿里(09988.HK)目標價至391元 評級「跑贏大市」
麥格理發表的研究報告指,從阿里(09988.HK)投資者關係人員了解近期業務及截至9月份季度的展望,總體而言料季節性因素將帶動整體盈利走勢。考慮到疫情下消費者更審慎,加上季節性推廣等,估計消費者在截至6月底及12月底的季度消費將較多,而截至9月的季度消費則會暫緩。該行將公司目標價由403元降至391元,評級維持「跑贏大市」。
該行將公司商品交易額(GMV)增長預測由23%降至20%,以反映客戶管理收入及佣金方面的比率,但估計受GMV組合轉向新鮮產品的帶動,料抽成將維持平穩,而公司自9月底的季度起將簡化財務匯報,並將客戶管理收入及佣金收入合併計算。
該行認為新零售方面的收入或現跌勢,而早前對新零售方面的增長估算亦太高,現時相信本地服務包括餓了麼等收入增長或降至12%。麥格理仍未知道菜鳥雲服務能否在9月底止季度扭虧,而在雙十一前公司亦有一些營銷開支。
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