黄金周旅游收入恢复7成，旅游板块却逆势大跌
黄金周过后开市第一天，大盘一片喜庆。
但黄金周的核心要素——旅游，却是今天唯一逆势走跌的板块。
截止发稿，景点及旅游板块领跌大市，中国中免逼近跌停，众信旅游跌近6%，宋城演艺、天目湖、凯撒旅业等跟跌。
根据文化和旅游部测算，综合各地旅游部门、通讯运营商、线上旅行服务商的数据，八天长假期间，全国共接待国内游客6.37亿人次，按可比口径同比恢复79.0%；实现国内旅游收入4665.6亿元，同比恢复69.9%。
7月份开始，国内疫情已经基本得到控制，趁着一波牛市，旅游板块迎来一轮大涨。几周跟着大盘回调之后，继续集体上行，8月份到9月中旬累计涨幅超过20%，期间并无多少实质性利好。而这之后，就进入了下行通道。
所以，节后景点旅游板块逆势大跌大概率是因为节前利好已经充分兑现，或者说目前公布出来的黄金周数据没有超出多少预期。
此外，拖累整个板块的中国中免和众信旅游大跌主要是因为免税行业迎来一个大竞争对手。10月5日，阿里巴巴同全球最大免税零售商Dufry达成合作协议，将在中国组建新的战略合资企业（阿里巴巴和Dufry分别持有51%和49%股份），强势入局中国免税行业，对行业格局势必产生较大影响。
安信证券表示，国际免税巨头入场或将挤压现有国内企业市场份额，但并不意味着会打破现有免税市场的基本格局。我国消费者境外消费奢侈品超5000亿元(贝恩咨询2019年数据)，消费回流空间巨大，适度良性竞争利于市场扩容，分享增量蛋糕。同时，在我国前期牌照监管严格时期，龙头已积累起较大的规模、供应链和先发卡位优势，预计后续竞争中强者恒强，细分参与者将各有所长。
值得一提的是，7月份众信旅游跟着大盘涨了一波，大幅回调后就一直在横盘。其节后大跌还受到境外游业务的影响，以2019年为例，众信旅游的出境批发和零售业务收入合计113.5亿元，占比总营收超过90%。而国外疫情形势依然十分严峻，导致该公司的出境游业务急剧压缩，上半年仅为10.71亿元，随着海外疫情的二次爆发，出境游限制放宽遥遥无期，其经营相当受限。
中国旅游研究院今日发布报告表示，假日效应正向节后溢出，预计全年旅游经济呈“U型”恢复和振兴发展态势将是大概率事件。今年国庆中秋假期与端午节假期相比，恢复进度分别提高了28个和39个百分点。人均每次旅游消费也有明显增加，旅游经济稳中向好的基本面进一步稳固，全年旅游发展预期有望从谨慎乐观转向相对乐观。
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