植耀輝: 港股維持區間上落 濠賭股未屆吸納時 匯控(00005.HK)傷透股民心
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，雖然上周有一個長假期，但相信不少朋友仍未能放鬆心情，皆因上周五(10月2日)傳出美國總統特朗普確診消息，隨即成為大眾其中一個茶餘飯後的話題。不少身邊朋友認為特朗普「中招」乃是苦肉計，是否有內情外人難以得知，但特朗普由「中招」到極速「康復」所帶來的疑團確不少；而且根據過去競選行情，越近選舉日，將會有越多「黑材料」被公開，令選情存在重大暗湧。所以對投資市場來說，未來一個月肯定會十分波動。
除了大選因素外，疫情會否在冬季再度爆發亦值得大家關注。新冠疫情肆虐至今已差不多近一年，疫情對各地經濟以至商業活動之打擊亦遠超原先預期。雖說各地已爭分奪秒去研發疫苗，但病毒出現變種亦令研發難度增加，而且歐美地區似乎又再出現新一波爆發。所以雖然過去兩個交易日港股表現不俗，但投資者仍不能掉以輕心。在未有實質利好消息之前，相信恆指暫將繼續於23,200至24,200點水平上落。
另外，假期期間筆者跟不少朋友及親戚碰面，他們大嘆股市難「搵食」之餘，部分亦有請教筆者如何處置手上仍持有之匯控(00005.HK)。筆者早在去年已建議減持，惟在「情意結」下，卻沒有多少人願意「放手」。不過當中有一個朋友的情況，頗值得分享。
事緣他多年前已買入數手匯控並一直持有，大概三年前開始更以月供方式增持，可惜過去幾年匯控股價持續下跌，加上越來越多負面消息，令他對匯控亦越來越心淡，結果當匯控跌至30元附近時，決定暫停月供，並狠狠地將該批月供股份全數沽出。筆者有問他為何會突然有此決定，他只是淡淡回應一句：「我不想再理它了，連想或聽到也不想」或者這就是所謂「哀莫大於心死」吧!但問到會否連持有多年之「倉底貨」也沽售時，他卻顯得頗猶豫，最後始拋出一句「再望望」便再沒有多說。筆者猜想可能那些持貨成本很高，又或者心底裡始終仍對「大笨象」抱有感情吧!
最後亦想談談濠賭股表現。受9月博彩收入遜預期及黃金周訪澳內地客大跌影響，一眾濠賭股表現均跑輸大市。筆者自疫情至今一直對濠賭股投資前景相當有保留，因不論從客觀環境以至真實狀況，賭收一定會強差人意(正如下年度有相當大機會出現報復性反彈一樣)。然而自年初至今大行普遍繼續盲目唱好，並不斷憧憬賭收會出現反彈，但這亦只是一廂情願的想法而已；黃金周表現則肯定是一個重要分水嶺，連唯一最大的寄望亦落空，相信即使繼續唱好，但股價要重上早前高位機會恐怕不大。另外要留意的是，雖然股價近期有所回落，但大部分亦只是回調至今年5月至8月之水平。加上早前已有消息指內地正加強打擊洗錢活動，相信濠賭股股價仍有下調空間，暫時仍不建議大家考慮相關板塊。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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