三生制药(01530.HK):赛普汀有望快速放量,业绩持续增长,给予“买入”评级,目标价11.28港元
机构:三生制药
评级:买入
目标价:11.28港元
公司重磅新产品有望快速放量:
公司重磅品种赛普汀于今年6月获批上市,有望为公司营收贡献新增量。HER2阳性乳腺癌患者约50万人,中国市场的空间在百亿以上,作为国内首个获批的HER2单抗,未来2年只有公司、罗氏、复宏汉霖3家,竞争格局良好,预计该峰值有望突破15亿元,成为公司重要增量贡献。今年11月如果以较好的价格进入医保,将迅速放量增长。
公司研究团队实力深厚,在研项目储备丰富:
公司在研产品种类涵盖肾科、肿瘤、自身免疫及其他、代谢和皮肤疾病五个种类共31种在研产品,其中21种为国家新药。IL-4抗体已经获得FDA批准并已经临床入组,也获得NMPA批准临床试验,IL-5抗体在中国开始临床入组,PD-1单抗美国一期临床试验完成患者入组并开始中国临床入组,其他如抗CD20单抗、IL-17及眼用VEGF是公司在研产品中具有销售增长潜力的产品。益普赛预充式注射剂能够提高患者使用公司益赛普系列产品的依存度,提高公司该类产品的市占率。
现有主要重点产品有望保持增长:公司重点产品包括特比澳、益赛普及重组人促红素产品益比奥及赛博尔,均为中国内地市场下各生物制药领域的领先产品,特比澳过去5年复合增长40%,未来还保持快速增长,益赛普价格有压力,但通过拓展适应症,提升渗透率贡献利润,益比奥随着未来血透的渗透率上升获得较快增长。蔓迪近三年销售复合增长65%,预期3年后可达10亿。
首次覆盖,给予买入评级,目标价11.28港元:
我们预计公司2020-2022年EPS分别为0.60、0.70、0.85元,给予公司2021年14.5倍目标PE,对应目标价为11.28港元,较现价有33.02%的上涨空间,给予“买入”评级。
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