汽车行业20Q4投资策略：在行业复苏中寻找确定性机会，维持“推荐”评级
机构：银河证券
评级：推荐
乘用车市场 Q4 将大概率持续回暖。受新冠疫情影响，今年汽车零售下滑较大，据乘联会数据显示，2020 年 1-8 月我国共销售乘用车1,101.5 万辆，同比-15.2%。传统汽车消费旺季“金九银十”今年将得到延续，北京车展 9 月下旬开幕将进一步带动消费，受目前疫情影响，十一国内自驾游热度预期强于往年，将对 Q4 购车需求形成有力支撑。
自主品牌市场向头部靠拢。2018 年市场下行至今，我国乘用车市占率向头部品牌靠拢，2017 年前 15 品牌销量占全市场 69.7%，2020 年前8 个月前 15 品牌销量市占率达到 78.9%，提升接近 10 个百分点，趋势明显。众多年销量不足 20 万辆的品牌近 3 年市占率下滑较大，在电动智能化浪潮中，产品竞争力不足将逐步被市场淘汰，市场空间将被头部主机厂替代，为其销量提供成长空间。
细分市场增量空间较大。我们认为皮卡商乘两用属性或将迎来较大空间。商用方面，我们认为随着政策解禁逐步放开，皮卡将逐步替代微客、微卡、轻客、轻卡的需求，潜在空间超过 70 万辆/年。乘用方面，随着市场车型供给愈发丰富，消费者观念的改变，以及我国中西部地区类似于北美用车环境等因素叠加，对标海外成熟汽车市场中皮卡所占销量比例，我们预计皮卡在中国仍具备较大销量空间。
零部件首选智能驾驶标的。电动化进程不同的是，无论新能源化与否，智能化本质是消费者对汽车安全性、舒适性等更高品质的内在需求。在各品牌车辆机械素质趋于成熟后，该产品的智能化水平高低将对消费者购车起到决定性作用。我们预计部分前期技术及品牌的积累过硬的国产零部件公司将凭借其成本优势进入合资主机厂以及进口高端车品牌供应链。
投资建议：我们预计 Q4 汽车市场将持续回暖，主机厂建议关注长安汽车(000625.SZ)、长城汽车(601633.SH/2333.HK)；零部件关注科博达(603786.SH)、均胜电子(600699.SH)、华域汽车(600741.SH)等。
风险提示：新冠疫情带来的风险，整车销量不及预期的风险，新能源汽车行业政策变化的风险，原材料价格上涨的风险等。
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