惠誉确认中国「A+」信贷评级 展望「稳定」
评级机构惠誉发表报告,确认中国长期外币发行人「A+」信贷评级,展望「稳定」。该行指,此评级是受到其强劲外部财政、过去一直强劲的宏观经济及作为世界第二大经济体等因素支持。但受到金融部门出现结构性漏洞、人均收入水平相对低及治理指标较弱等限制。
自今年首季采取严厉的社会隔离措施以防止病毒传播,对经济活动带来严重打击之後,中国经济目前正经历显着复苏。今年第二季的实际GDP按年增长3.2%,高过该行早前预期。虽然经济复苏的情况并不平衡,由消费者主导的活动落後於工业板块,但由於国内的感染率低,因此每数据仍有增长。
该行预期中国今年实际GDP增速为2.7%,认为疫情进一步爆发的风险仍不能忽视,但当局最近成功迅速遏止北京的感染情况,显示出其在不采取严重损害经济活动的大规模封锁情况下,管理本地疫情的能力正增强。该行预期2021年中国经济增长将提速至7.5%。
该行估计,由於赤字扩大,及至今年底中国政府债务占GDP的比重将升至56%,按年增加9个百分点。推测至2022年,政府债务占GDP比重将稳定於约58%水平。
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