汽车行业7月投资策略：6月销量增长11-6%，持续把握电，维持“超配”评级
机构：国信证券
评级：超配
特斯拉利好催化板块，电动智能汽车板块上涨显著
6月CS汽车上涨7.74%；CS汽车销售与服务上涨0.87%，CS商用车上涨4.30%，CS乘用车上涨8.75%，CS汽车零部件上涨7.87%，CS摩托车及其他上涨18.10%，新能源车上涨15.29%，智能汽车指数上涨13.36%，同期沪深300指数和上证综合指数分别上涨7.68%和4.64%。
6月汽车销量同比增长11.6%，库存合理区间
2020年6月国内汽车销量230.0万辆，同比增长11.6%；其中乘用车销量176.4万辆，同比增长1.8%；其中商用车销量53.6万辆，同比增长63.1%。1-6月，汽车产销分别完成1011.2万辆和1025.7万辆，同比分别下降16.8%和16.9%，降幅持续收窄，总体表现好于预期。短期看，我们认为随着6月国内车企在全面复工基础上逐渐恢复产能，同时前期抑制需求也得到释放，叠加各地购车优惠政策的推出，国内汽车供需逐渐回升，终端销售有望持续回暖。长期看，我们认为国内汽车行业目前仍然处于的是成长期向成熟期过渡阶段，后期有望长期维持正增长。
行业相关指标：需求逐渐恢复，原材料成本略有上扬
截至2020年6月经销商库存系数1.74，环比上升12.3%，短期库存压力缓解。原材料指标：2020年受疫情影响，下游需求降低，原材料价格全线下滑，6月终端需求逐渐恢复，大部分原材料价格呈现提升，总体来看6月汽车原材料价格上扬，橡胶、钢铁、玻璃、铝锭、锌锭价格全部环比上升。汇率指标：截至2020年6月30日，美元兑人民币汇率收至7.07，环比2020年6月底（6.87）小幅增长；欧元兑人民币汇率收至7.94，环比2020年6月底（7.82）有所上升。
风险提示：海外疫情带来供应链风险、需求恢复低于预期风险。
投资建议：板块复苏，精选四条主线
经历行业销量大幅下滑，库存下降，汽车行业处于历史估值的底部区间，汽车汽配行业已经进入高性价比的配置阶段，我们主要基于四条主线：1）电动化与智能化；2）行业集中度提升，具备核心资产的赛道龙头；3）具备成本与质量优势，实现进口替代的优质零部件；4）汽车后市场。重点推荐星宇股份、德赛西威、科博达、福耀玻璃、长安汽车、安车检测、中国汽研等。
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