石药集团(01093.HK)：肿瘤产品高增长，疫情影响有限，维持“增持”评级，目标价23.74港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：23.74港元
本报告导读：
公司公告 2020年一季报，疫情影响有限，业绩符合预期。肿瘤板块销售维持高景气，研发成果丰富，有望驱动业绩保持快速增长，维持公司增持评级。
摘要：
维持“增持”评级。公司发布 2020年一季报，报告期内公司实现营业收入 61.25 亿元，毛利 45.29 亿元，股东应占溢利 11.59 亿元，分别同比增长11.5%、17.9%、21.8%。其中成药销售50.22亿元，同比增长18.3%。疫情影响有限，业绩增长符合预期。维持 2020-2022年 EPS预测为0.72元、0.88 元、1.07元，维持目标价 23.74港元，维持“增持”评级。
核心品种维持高增长，拉动公司业绩。Q1核心板块抗肿瘤药物销售收入15.52亿元，同比增长 53.7%，其中克艾力（白紫）和津优力由于用药的便利性,销售受疫情影响较小，销售收入分别增长 114.0%、64.5%。各省份从4 月底基本推进了白紫的集采，虽然降价较多，但预计6月份销售额可以恢复到 19年12 月的水平，白紫全年 30亿元销售目标仍有望实现。恩必普 Q1 销售额同比增长 18.1%。基于药物经济学和临床指南，预计恩必普独家品种谈判的降价幅度可控，随着自费市场的开拓和县级医院的销售下沉，维持恩必普 100 亿销售峰值的预测。受集采中标驱动，心血管药物 Q1 销售额 5.82 亿元，同比增长 66.5%，主要依赖 2019 年恩存集采中标，而玄宁（马来酸左旋氨氯地平）销售收入增长也达到 25.8%，全年增速预计较高。
研发维持高投入，核心品种进展顺利。Q1研发费用达5.68 亿元，同比增长23.2%，研发投入没有受到疫情的影响，仍保持较高增长，预计全年研发投入25亿元。两性霉素 B复合物预计6月份现场核查，预计Q3获批；米托蒽醌即将报产；RANKL、奥马珠单抗进入临床 III期。预计2021年后公司有望每年 2-3个新药和新制剂获批上市，创新转型更进一步。公司目前规划科创板上市，有望募集资金进一步加大研发投入，推动制药业务发展。
催化剂：重要产品获批上市销售，核心产品销售放量超预期，在研创新药临床数据超预期。
风险提示：产品研发不及预期，行业政策风险，新冠疫情影响程度超预期。
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