美团点评-W(03690.HK)：用户／商户数增长超预期，疫情影响收入有所降低，维持“买入”评级，目标价167.31港元
机构：东方证券
评级：买入
目标价：167.31港元
核心观点
整体来看，疫情对短期业绩有冲击，但是长期来看可培养用户习惯并加快商户数字化转型，公司活跃用户和商户同比保持正增长。截至 3/31，公司的年交易用户数同比+8.9%至 4.49 亿人；人均年交易次数同比+5.6%至 26.2次/年；年活跃商家同比+5.3%至 610 万家。20Q1 实现收入 167.5 亿元，yoy-12.6%（佣金 yoy-18%，在线营销服务 yoy+0.1%）；经调整净亏损额为 2.16 亿元，利润率同比提升 4.2pct 至-1.3%。
外卖业务：高端商户增加拉高客单，目前恢复速度较块。 20Q1 日单量 1,51万笔，yoy-18.2%；疫情期间品牌/连锁餐饮的订单占比提升，单位订单金额同比增加 6.6 元至52 元/单；外卖 GTV 同比微降 5.4%至 715亿元。由于疫情冲击和 KA 商户占比提升，变现率有所降低， 外卖业务收入同比降 11.4%外卖业务恢复速度较块，至 3月末日单量已经恢复至疫情前 75%的水平。
到店和酒旅业务：受冲击最大，恢复速度较慢。20Q1 酒店间夜量同比降45.5%至 4,280 万，其中本地住宿及低线城市的商旅住宿恢复速度更快，因此美团相比同行有一定结构上的优势。为了加快行业复苏，公司推出“安心住”项目，但相比外卖业务，到店和酒店的恢复速度相对较慢；20Q1 到店收入同比降 31%至 31 亿元（佣金降 50.6%，广告降 8.2%）；营业利润率为 22%，同比降13.5pct。
新业务：今年投入力度不减。新业务收入 20Q1 同比+4.9%至 41.7 亿元，营业利润率同比提 32.3pct。网约车及 B2B 业务收入有所减少，美团闪购和小额贷款收入增加。公司管理层在公开业绩交流会上表示，今年仍然会从长期战略角度出发，保持对共享单车、闪购、美团买菜、B2B 业务的持续投入。
财务预测与投资建议
我们预测公司 20-22 年 EPS 分别为 0.27/2.85/4.45 元.。采取分部估值，参考可比公司，给予外卖业务 4.8x PS，预计 21 年收入 917 亿CNY；到店及酒旅给予 31x PE，预计 21 年实现利润 146亿 CNY；不考虑新业务的估值公司合理估值为 9749 亿 HKD，目标价 167.31 元，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：市场竞争加剧，佣金率提升水平不及预期，到店业务恢复缓慢。
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