摩通:国际油价大跌 料中石化(0386.HK)及中石油(0857.HK)有机会受惠
摩通发布报告称,国际油价大跌,预计中石化(0386.HK)及中石油(0857.HK)有机会受惠。
由于内地现存的炼油定价机制已将成品油价格锁定在每桶40美元的基准水平,因此在2015年12月10至2016年3月8日,布伦特期油价格跌穿破每桶40美元期间,中石化及中石油借着定价机制分别获得约100亿元人民币及70亿元人民币利润。
该行表示,若原油价格维持现水平,预计内地企业炼油业务的较小规模地方炼油厂更能受惠,主要是由于大型企业有较大规模的综合营销业务、更廉价的中东原油占比更大。近期内地成品油需求减少,大油厂也叫停了外判工作,地方油厂近乎停摆,在内地恢复需求之前,预计只有国企油厂能够维持利用率在70%以上。另外,该行估计,中石油及中石化液化天然气及天然气进口业务2020财年亏损将持续扩大。
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