瑞信:下调瑞声(2018.HK)目标价至59港元 降内地手机付运预测
瑞信发表报告表示,基于iPhone 11销售较高,上调瑞声科技(2018.HK)去年每股盈利预测2%,但同时料内地能手机付运疲弱,调低对公司2020年及2021年每股盈利预测分别5%及3%,料今年毛利率承压及营业费用较高,维持对瑞声“中性”投资评级,将目标价由62港元降至59港元,此相当预测今年市盈率22倍。
该行指,瑞声将于3月25日公布去年第四季业绩,估计其季绩将逊市场预期,因Android手机的声学及外壳均价承压、来自苹果公司业务的市场份额降低。考虑到受内地疫情所影响,该行料瑞声2020年首季收入将按季跌31%(按年跌5%),毛利率降至23%,料纯利将按季下滑63%(按年跌35%)。
瑞信下调全球智能手机2020年及2021年付运量预测各1%及5%,华为智能手机2020年付运预测由2.68亿部降至2.1亿部,将华为智能手机2021年付运预测由2.84亿部降至2.14亿部。但该行上调对iPhone于2020年付运预测由1.95亿部升至2.07亿部,将iPhone于2021年付运预测由2.01亿部升至2.13亿部。
该行亦下调中国今年首季智能手机付运预测21%至4,800万部(按年跌34%),降中国今年智能手机付运预测4%至3.78亿部(按年升1%),反映受新冠状病毒疫情的影响。

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