吉利汽車(00175.HK):自主龍頭強者恆強,擁抱新挑戰新機遇,給予“持有”評級,目標價16.1港元
機構:國元證券
評級:持有
目標價:16.1港元
投資要點
中國汽車行業迎來淘汰賽階段:
在淘汰賽背景下,車企的兩極分化將推動行業整合,尾部廠商逐漸出清,市場份額向頭部集中,龍頭車企獲益。中國依舊是全球最大的乘用車市場,無論從存量還是增量的角度,消費者依然有着巨大的潛在需求,自主品牌仍具廣闊的發展空間。
吉利汽車屬於核心資產嗎?
我們認為汽車行業核心資產的定義為:具有無可替代核心優勢的龍頭企業,未來在“新四化”方向上擁有領先優勢。吉利汽車具備1)全球化的研發設計體系;2)以模塊化架構為核心的造車能力;3)豐富的產品矩陣等核心優勢。
代際切換,吉利在新四化下的新機遇:
在電動化、智能化、網聯化、共享化的推進下,行業迎來前所未有之大變革。面對新的機遇與挑戰,吉利緊跟時代趨勢,提出“藍色吉利行動”、佈局曹操出行、加強汽車網聯與智能駕駛的技術儲備,推進“新四化”。
首次覆蓋給予“持有”評級,目標價16.1港元:
長期來看,公司在產品設計、研發、供應鏈協同、模塊化架構以及產品佈局等方面具有領先優勢。我們預測2019-2021年EPS分別為0.97/1.16/1.32元人民幣。考慮到公司核心資產定位,我們認為相比於同行業可享受一定溢價,給予目標價16.1港元,對應2020年12.5倍PE,首次覆蓋給予“持有”評級。

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