石药集团(1093.HK)2019 年三季报点评：业绩持续快速增长，新药管线布局深厚，维持“买入”评级
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
◆前三季度业绩符合预期。公司前三季度收入167.6亿元（+27.5%），归母净利润28.1亿元（+24.0%），每股盈利45.15分（+24.3%），符合市场预期。毛利率同比提升5.8pp至70.9%，公司盈利结构持续优化。在核心产品驱动下，创新药业务收入大幅增长51.9%。公司净利润增速慢于收入端，主要受到销售开支及研发开支加大影响。
◆成药业务表现理想，创新药占比提升至57%。1）创新药产品线表现靓丽，营收达到95.3亿元（+51.9%），已占前三季度总收入57.0%。恩必普持续市场下沉，预计年底销售团队有望增加至2400人，前三季度收入强劲增长35.7%至40亿元，考虑到终端下沉与学术推广齐发力，预计20年仍有望保持快速增长。2）普药业务由于销售改革及团队整合，前三季度收入同比增长6.0%至38.6亿元，整合完成后有望加强学术推广和医生服务能力，预期有望实现恢复增长。
◆克艾力销售强劲，抗肿瘤产品线成公司新增长引擎。抗肿瘤产品增长170.7%至34.8亿元：前三季度多美素、津优力维持高速增长至12.1和10.7亿元，克艾力收入贡献超过11亿元，增长势头仍然强劲。抗肿瘤板块高增长主要是：1）重点品种医院覆盖率增长；2）销售团队扩充并加大学术推广力度；3）新产品上市快速放量。随着公司在抗肿瘤领域影响力的逐步建立，预计该板块未来几年有望维持强劲增长。
◆研发投入强劲，管线稳步推进。公司研发力度持续增加，前三季度研发费用达15亿元，占成药收入比重为11.2%，研发投入处行业领先水平且有望持续加码。仿制药共有16个品种、21个品规通过一致性评价，有望借助带量采购政策快速切入市场。新药方面，新型制剂、大分子和小分子研发平台各具特色，预计未来三年有望每年推动3~5个新药品种上市。管线中新型制剂两性霉素B脂质体和米托蒽醌脂质体、创新药CD20单抗、PI3K抑制剂有望于20~21年获批，预计将成为公司新一代重磅炸弹。
◆盈利预测与投资评级。公司盈利结构持续优化，现有产品增速稳健并有望维持，我们维持19-21年EPS预测分别为0.62/0.74/0.86元，同比增长22%/18%/17%，对应19-21年PE分别为30/25/21x。考虑到公司研发技术平台优势凸显，储备重磅品种有望有序上市，当前估值仍具吸引力，维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：原料药价格波动，产品销售不及预期，研发不及预期。
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