旭辉控股集团(00884.HK)：销售表现明显提速，拿地权益占比提升，维持“买入”评级，目标价6.83 港元
机构：西南证券
评级：买入
目标价：6.83 港元
单月销售额大幅增长76%，累计销售金额增长32%。2019年1-10月，公司实现销售金额1558亿元，同比增长32.2%，实现销售面积923万方，同比增长24.4%，累计销售均价16840元/平方米，同比增长6.0%。从单月销售数据看，2019年3月、6月、9月、10月公司销售分别为190亿元、223亿元、200亿元和190亿元，下半年公司销售持续放量。10月单月公司实现销售面积121万方，同比增长79.6%，实现销售金额190亿元，同比增长76.2%，单月销售增速亮眼。分季度来看，2019年Q1、Q2、Q3销售金额分别为344亿元、540亿元和483亿元，同比分别增长26.8%、38.9%和17.7%，销单面积分别为194万方、315万方和293万方，同比分别增长7.2%、25.8%和20.6%，由于销售结构改善及产品力的提升，Q1、Q2公司销售单价大幅增长15.5%和9.4%，公司下半年可售货值达2300亿元，一二线和准二线占比约89%，2019年全年公司销售目标1900亿元，公司产品竞争力优势持续凸显，预计完成全年目标无虞。
拿地权益比持续提升，提质增效逐步兑现。在拿地方面，公司采取招拍挂、并购、旧改、商业勾地等多元化拿地方式，1-10月公司新增计容建筑面积1126万方，权益计容建面812万方，权益比72%，总地价555.8亿元，权益地价422.4亿元，拿地金额权益占比提升至76%，综合拿地单价4935元/平方米。截止7月末，公司累计土地储备达6300万方，总货值9800亿，其中一二线及准二线占比高达89%。另外，公司在大湾区通过合作开发加参与旧改在8个城市合计锁定逾30个项目，预计总建面约600万平方米。
杠杆总体可控，融资成本保持低位。2019年7月及10月，公司分别发行3亿美元、16亿人民币、5亿美元的6.55%、6.70%及6.45%优先票据，综合融资成本自2016年以来均控制在6%以下的水平，2019年上半年公司加权融资成本约为5.9%，继续维持在行业低位。截止2019年上半年末公司净负债率约为69.5%，比去年同期降低2.5个百分点，一年内到期债务比约为18%，杠杆总体可控，安全性无忧。
盈利预测与评级。预计2019-2020年EPS分别为0.90元、1.14元，考虑到公司良好的均衡性、销售增长的稳定性和未来业绩的确定性，给予公司2019年6.5倍估值，目标价格6.83港元，维持“买入”评级。
?风险提示：调控政策及融资面继续收紧、未来销售增长或低于预期。
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