中国太保(2601.HK)：保险业务稳健，权益类资产占比提升，维持“审慎增持”评级
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
投资要点
我们的观点：中国太保在未来的发展中注重打造“数字化”平台，加速“太保转型2.0”建设，公司寿险业务结构有望持续优化，产险业务盈利性有望持续提升。我们维持公司“审慎增持”评级，下调公司目标价9.1%至36.64港元。2019-2021年，中国太保目标价对应的集团每股内含价值分别为0.84、0.73及0.64倍，建议投资者关注。
2019年前三季度公司业绩稳增长：截至2019年9月30日止9个月，公司2019年第三季度营业收入同比增长7.4%；归属公司股东净利润同比增长80.2%。2019年前三季度，公司加权平均净资产收益率为14.2%，同比提升5.2个百分点；扣除非经常性损益后加权平均净资产收益率为11.2%，同比提升2.2个百分点。2019Q1-3，太保寿险实现保险业务收入1,858.8亿元，同比增长5.0%。其中，新保业务收入347.3亿元，同比下降12.3%。2019Q1-3，太保产险实现保险业务收入1,004.6亿元，同比增长12.9%。其中，车险业务收入674.5亿元，同比增长5.3%；非车险业务收入330.1亿元，同比增长32.3%。
权益类资产占比扩大，投资收益率略升：截止至2019年9月30日，中国太保集团2019年前三季度投资资产规模达到1.37万亿元，较上年末增加11.1%。从投资结构方面，权益类投资较上年末上升2.0个百分点；投资性房地产占比较上年末下降0.1个百分点；固定收益类及现金等价物类投资分别较上年末下降0.9及1.0个百分点。2019Q1-3，公司实现总投资收益率5.1%，较2018年末上升0.5个百分点；净投资收益率4.8%，较2018年末下降0.1个百分点。
风险提示：资本市场波动，保费增速不达预期，公司经营风险，保险行业政策改变
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