粤海投资(0270.HK):市场波动正不断上升,维持“收集“评级,目标价18.20港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:收集
目标价:18.20港元
2019年前三季度收入同比升14.0%而净利则同比跌2.0%。公司于前三季度的收入符合预期,但盈利不及预期。期内的收入增长主要受到表现较佳的水资源业务以及物业投资及发展业务所带动,两者共贡献了期内近80%的收入。尽管2019年第三季度的净利润录得了高单位数的同比下滑,但我们认为公司仍将实现我们当前约54亿港元的2019全年的盈利预测,意味着公司于2019年将实现不低于7%的盈利增长。我们因此维持当前的盈利预测。
在国内的快速扩张将推动公司未来的增长。公司于报告期末时归在其它水资源业务分部内的总设计供水能力为每日8.584百万吨,而总污水处理能力则为每日1.291百万吨,其产能分别较2019年初时上升了63%和13%。强劲的产能扩张的背后是进取的收购以及对现有生产设施的升级改造。我们预计公司于未来仍将通过持续地并购和不断升级现有生产设施以继续提升其在国内的供水及污水处理的产能。
我们重申“收集”的投资评级但调升目标价至18.20港元。考虑到公司水资源业务和物业投资及发展业务的高增长前景,我们重申对公司“收集”的投资评级。由于市场波动的不断上升将迫使投资者寻找安全避风港,我们调升公司目标价至18.20港元,相当于22.1倍/20.0倍/19.3倍2019至2021年市盈率或2.8倍/2.7倍/2.5倍2019至2021年市净率。

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