里昂:上调玖纸(2689.HK)目标价至6.5港元 评级“跑输大市”
里昂发表研究报告,指玖纸(2689.HK)
2019财年经调整盈利按年下跌48.7%,略较该行的预期低出2.8%,但符合早前发出的盈利警告,纸价暴跌导致公司的盈利下跌。在需求疲弱、新增产能的风险、及受人民币贬值影响而出现成本上涨等情况下,仍看到公司的前景疲弱。
该行又指,公司将其在中国的四条生产线的开工时间延后2至3个季度,至今年第四季及明年首季,似乎是希望减低对市场的额外压力。同时,除了计划在美国增加纸浆产能外,公司亦正式在马来西亚增加产能,从而减少中国限制废纸进口带来的进一步影响,相信2020财年的销售量增长将会受到影响,资本开支预算亦会提升。
里昂将玖纸2020至2021财年的经调整盈利预测分别下调5.8%及1.4%,以反映销售量及均价下跌的因素,但基于市场气氛因季节性因素而有所好转,将其目标价由原来的6港元上调至
6.5港元
,维持
“跑输大市”
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