“新烟时代“系列报告新消费赛道起步电子烟的黄金时代分析师
机构：广发证券
核心观点：
全球控烟背景下，新型烟草顺应潮流、健康趋势而生
蒸汽式电子烟雾化烟油达到吸烟的效果，全球电子烟市场规模已突破百亿美元；HNB是运用加热而非燃烧技术，减害同时还原口感。健康和潮流带动消费需求，驱动电子烟全产业链快速发展。
全球电子烟处于快速增长通道，中国电子烟市场蓄势待发颇具潜力
据2018年世界烟草发展报告显示，全球新型烟草市场规模增长至247.2亿美元。国内市场目前蒸汽式电子烟不足1%，HNB尚未放开市场。本文在不同市场渗透率假设下，对国内蒸汽式电子烟和HNB烟弹烟具进行市场空间测算。蒸汽式电子烟：以国内烟民数量为基数，若国内渗透率达到2%、5%和10%，烟弹年市场规模有望达到约256亿元、641亿元和1281亿元，烟具年市场规模测算有望达到约17亿元、42亿元和84亿元。HNB：以国内烟民数量为基数，若国内渗透率达到2%、5%和10%时，烟弹年市场规模有望达到约319亿元、798亿元和1597亿元，烟具年市场规模有望达到约32亿元、79亿元和158亿元。
海外市场基本验证消费需求，各国监管态度有所差异
全球四大烟草巨头纷纷布局新型烟草：菲莫国际推出了IQOS系列产品，风靡全球；日本烟草研发了PloomTech；英美烟草和帝国烟草积极开发电子烟、HNB和口嚼烟的多产品组合。此外，尼古丁盐的应用也推动了蒸汽式电子烟的市场发展，以JUUL为代表的小烟，在欧美国家深受喜爱。海外国家监管政策方面，各国政府差异较大。例如，美国视电子烟为烟草制品，对HNB进行严格监管；而日本禁止销售电子烟，准许并监管HNB销售。
国内蒸汽式电子烟步入渠道扩张期，HNB启动出口市场试点、后续可期
国内头部蒸汽式品牌积极扩张渠道，一级市场资本大量布局，消费者品类认知教育有望快速提升。《电子烟》强制性国家标准有望在年内发布，填补监管空白，行业有望进入有序迅速发展阶段。
国内HNB由中烟公司为参与主体，目前已借助中烟香港平台试点海外市场，参与到国际竞争和合作中去。我们预计，在HNB试销海外之后，国内的试点工作也有望在未来逐步推进。
风险提示
国际形势影响国际贸易的风险；新型烟草减害未达预期的风险；渗透率假设偏离真实情况的风险；专利侵犯的风险；国内新型烟草政策监管制度缺失的风险；中烟公司研发未能实现技术突破的风险；中烟公司国际市场竞争力不及预期的风险。
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