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协众国际控股(3663.HK)增长引擎走上正轨维持“收集“评级目标价2.1港元
格隆汇 07-04 16:44

机构:国泰君安

评级:收集

目标价:2.1港元

 增长引擎正在走上正轨,有望提升公司的利润。首先,在标致雪铁龙集团的摩洛哥盖尼特 拉工厂于 2019 年 6 月落成后,公司的摩洛哥工厂将开始对标致雪铁龙集团进行投产供应。 雷诺的机会仍然存在,因为本地化预计将在未来几年增加。其次,雷克萨斯 2019 年上半 年在中国的销量同比增长 36.5%,远超行业表现。因此,我们仍预计 4S 业务将在 2019 年成为一个快速增长的动力。

 我们将 2019 年至 2021 年的净利润率预测分别上调 15.0%/12.9%/11.0%。净利润增长主 要原因是雷克萨斯的销售好于预期,说明 4S 业务的收入贡献强劲。此外,我们预计 4S 业务的利润率将会增加,因为即使没有折扣,下游市场的需求依然强劲。

 我们维持投资评级为“收集”,并将目标价上调至 2.10 港元。目标价对应 16.7 倍的 2019 年市盈率和 12.5 倍的 2020 年市盈率。公司将面临的下行风险包括:1)中国汽车销量增 幅将进一步下滑;2)在摩洛哥建厂的新业务可能失败;以及 3)北京汽车销量下降幅度超 过预期。 

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