房地产物业管理行业大行业小公司地产后周期的黄金赛道
机构：东北证券
报告摘要：
大市场，小公司。中国物管行业诞生于上世纪八十年代，起步虽晚却发展迅猛，截止2018年底，全国物管面积达204亿平米，市场规模巨大，随着2016-18年销售高峰的逐渐竣工，未来年物管行业将迎来一轮快速增长；长期来看，受益于城镇化率、人均居住面积的提升，物管行业市场规模将维持增量发展。此外，行业集中度依然较低，龙头物管公司有望借力资本力量、兄弟开发公司实现规模快速增长，但我们认为长期来看物管行业集中度将低于地产开发业，当下如何获取更高的市场份额显得更为关键。
围绕住宅业态，进行多业态拓展：目前百强物管公司在管面积中约七成为住宅，商办、机构、产业园物业占比较小，但其物业费大多高于住宅，且更易提价，业主单一；随着龙头物管公司管理能力、规模的提升，非住宅业态必将成为竞争的焦点，部分拥有资源或先发优势的公司将脱颖而出。
常规增值服务平台化，专业型服务尚待发展：常规性增值服务其行业门槛低、碎片化程度高，结合我国实际情况与国外经验，我们认为趋势应是物管公司利用自身客户、规模优势，搭建平台引入优秀供应商为主；养老、幼托等服务虽与物管公司模式相契合，但商业模式仍待摸索，若有公司能形成突破则将容易形成行业壁垒。
对于市场较为关注的几个问题，如基础服务毛利率的可持续性、物业费均价的意义、社保缴纳，我们尝试给出自己的答案。短期来看，由于增量项目的持续交付，基础服务高毛利率足以维持，部分公司有进一步上探可能；中期来看，随着在管面积基数不断增加，基础服务毛利率将逐渐承压，但依然可以通过退出亏损项目等方式维持整体毛利率稳定；长期来看，基础服务毛利率将略高于成熟市场酬金制项目利润率，而增值服务将会成为主流，整体毛利率甚至能够不降反升。
对于物管公司，我们认为目前的节点下，规模的扩张至关重要，只有一定的规模才能给予公司市场知名度与增值服务发展空间。而当管理面积达标后，长期来看，需要综合考虑公司的区域、业态布局，股东背景资源，管理运营能力，拓展能力，品牌价值等。
首次覆盖物业管理行业，给予“优于大市”评级。我们相信，目前已上市的物管公司作为行业龙头公司，具备明显优势，将享受到更多行业发展红利，兼顾中短期规模增长的确定性与长期发展潜力，推荐碧桂园服务、中海物业、绿城服务、新城悦、永升生活服务。
风险提示：非业主增值服务受房地产市场影响，中长期存量物业提价仍然受阻。
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