呷哺呷哺(0520.HK)蜕变中的休闲小火锅龙头首次覆盖给予“买入”评级目标价14.43港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：14.43港元
投资要点
首次覆盖给予买入评级，目标价14.43港元：我们预计公司2019-2021年EPS分别为0.52/0.64/0.78元，同比+19.7%/23.5%/22.1%。市场对公司同店增速和利润率的担忧使得当前股价对应的估值已具备相当吸引力，我们认为股价已经很大程度反应了担忧。根据DCF估值（WACC=9.64%，Perpetualg=2.0%），给予公司股票目标价14.43港元，相比现价（2019/6/26）10.10港元有42.8%的涨幅，对应2019/2020年PE为24.3x/19.7x，对应2019年PEG为1.12x，公司供应链完备，管理层专业，看好未来巨大的增长潜力，给予“买入”评级。
1、火锅行业长期集中度提升。成瘾性+社交功能+易标准化+高自由度，火锅是中餐的最佳赛道，能够解决行业扩张难的痛点。2018年火锅行业收入4,814亿元，近五年CAGR高达11.3%，然而CR5仅5.5%，集中度提升空间巨大。火锅龙头在资金、供应链、管理经验和全产业链布局等方面优势明显，长期看好集中度提升趋势为龙头海底捞和呷哺呷哺带来的增长机遇。
2、呷哺向南扩张、区域下沉的潜力巨大。呷哺呷哺采用滚轴式发展战略，充分利用中央厨房、统一配送体系挖掘规模效应，是市场上性价比最高的火锅连锁店之一。截至2018年底，公司共有886家呷哺门店，南方大部分地区仍待开拓，预计2019年将超过1000家门店。目前呷哺呷哺50%门店位于一线城市，31%门店位于二线城市，参考肯德基、必胜客和海底捞，下沉空间巨大。
3、湊湊加速贡献利润。凭借典雅的环境、好喝的茶饮和鲜嫩的食材，湊湊赢得了高口碑，上市两年收入占比已增至12%，成为新增长引擎。这种“火锅+茶憩”业态优势明显，坪效不输海底捞，是呷哺的2-3倍；单店营收约2000-2500万/年，是呷哺的4-5倍，经营利润率高于呷哺，2018年经营利润扭亏为盈6480万，看好其未来为公司带来的弹性。截至2018年底，全国共有48家湊湊开业，预计2019年湊湊门店将超过80家，收入占比到2021年将至25%。
4、门店升级、调味品和外卖业务提升客单价和同店增速。2016年下半年起，公司呷哺餐厅进行品牌升级，转型轻正餐，目前呷哺2.0餐厅已达600多家，有助于提高客单价和同店增速。此外，公司拓展调味品业务领域、发力外送业务增加销售密度，亦有助于提升同店销售。
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