传媒行业19Q1互联网广告回顾宏观与结构因素共振广告分化加剧维持“看好”评级
机构：东方证券
评级：看好
19Q1互联网广告整体承压，分化显著，效果广告好于品牌，短视频异军突起。我们选取了18家上市互联网公司作为样本，发现一季度线上广告表现不佳，除电商广告逆势增速强劲外，其他增速均明显放缓。进一步看不同形式广告的增速放缓时点、程度不一：电商维持高增速（强效果稳ROI），搜索自18Q4已明显放缓（流量价值下降+行业监管），社交社区19Q1增速下滑，视频下滑时间更早至18Q3（品牌为主），媒体门户则一直较差（品牌为主），反映了品牌转效果的长期趋势和流量迁移。主要数据：1）电商：阿里巴巴/京东（部分）/拼多多19Q1yoy+31%/27.4%/254.1%（vs18Q427.8%/24%/470.5%）；2）搜索：百度19Q1yoy+3.2%（vs18Q43.9%）；3）社交社区：腾讯社交/微博19Q1yoy+33.7%/20.6%（vs18Q443.8%/31.8%）；4）视频：腾讯媒体/爱奇艺19Q1yoy+6.1%/0.4%（vs18Q425.9%/2.8%）；5）媒体：网易/搜狐/新浪/凤凰均在低个位数增长或负增长；6）其他：美团/58同城广告19Q1yoy+91.2%/30.1%（vs18Q4106.3%/38%）
一季度广告市场整体疲软主要因宏观经济下行导致广告主预算缩减，更进一步品牌和效果各有结构性不利因素：品牌广告部分头部行业（如汽车、新经济）下滑严重，效果广告虽因注重转化的特点受影响更小（roi更稳），但搜索、社交增速也受到政策收紧影响，例如医疗（搜索广告主力）、游戏（社交买量主力）、金融等重要广告主行业导致监管加强。此外，媒介端竞争格局变化，头条系APP的崛起持续切分流量和广告收入。
透过汽车和新经济行业管窥细分行业广告主投放行为：1）品牌广告主投放预算受下游需求和企业经营情况影响明显，而终端消费需求-企业盈利-广告预算的传导具有滞后性，结合后文分析我们认为滞后1-2个季度；2）新经济企业广告投放受融资驱动，该类广告主占比较大的媒介会受到明显冲击，亟待挖掘新需求。3）广告主行业即使出现反弹，广告投放（尤其品牌）也因滞后性不会及时调整，19Q3品牌广告大概率继续堪忧。
投资建议
百度、爱奇艺、微博19Q2收入指引均不及预期，反映Q2互联网广告大概率继续疲软。我们认为宏观经济复苏的不确定性受贸易战影响增大，即使Q2/Q3出现反弹，滞后效应也使短期内弹性有限，Q3品牌广告大概率难以反转，因此我们对全年广告市场持谨慎态度，密切跟踪宏观经济、重要广告主行业以及竞争格局变动。建议从长期趋势角度关注穿越周期的电商广告和社交社区广告两条主线：1）电商：关注龙头阿里巴巴（BABA.N，未评级）和受益下沉市场的拼多多（PDD.O，买入）；2）社交社区：关注社交广告变现潜力大的腾讯控股（0700.HK，未评级）、具有较强社交价值的微博（WB.O，未评级）、分享下沉流量红利的趣头条（QTT.O，买入）。
风险提示
宏观经济下行风险、监管政策风险、竞争格局变化风险等。
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