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爲什麼短期“美元荒”會加劇?

來源:華泰證券宏觀研究

9月5日盤中,美元指數觸及110,爲2002年以來本輪高點。究竟本輪 「美元荒」的驅動因素是什麼?9月後還有哪些可能加劇美元「稀缺性」的宏觀變量?

從市場走勢看,8月26日晚間鮑威爾在美聯儲年會上的講話、就在實質意義上結束了7-8月間美元流動性和市場的「喘息窗口」。2021年來美元流動性總量收緊、結構極度分化,造成美元「易漲難跌」,甚至在一些經濟體和細分領域「一票難求」。然而,9月後美元流動性收緊的節奏可能更快,具體看:

1. 聯儲9月後開始「真正縮表」

9月,美聯儲縮錶速度按照既定的日程翻倍;同時,財政存款下降對美國基礎貨幣的補充也將消退——美國基礎貨幣增長及其GDP佔比均將加速下行。

值得一提的是,雖然在市場認知中,美聯儲自6月以來在連續「縮表」,但真正影響市場流動性的基礎貨幣由於財政存款下降,7月是小幅回升的。

2. 美國經濟動能轉弱減少美元供給

美國貿易逆差可能收窄、減少對全球的美元輸出。美國貿易逆差和全球美元流動性、尤其新興市場資本流入正相關。高頻數據顯示,美國實物消費動能快速減弱,且製造業出現「被動累庫」跡象。美國進口的領先指標、韓國出口、全球PMI等一系列數據都顯示,美國進口需求減弱,逆差或將縮窄。

3. 能源短缺短期加劇美元局部「稀缺性」

近期,北溪一號斷供風波再度推升歐洲天然氣價格,並提醒市場能源供需的「脆弱性」。如果能源價格、尤其油價受供給衝擊進一步上行,那麼,美元在經濟體間的分佈將更不均衡,可能加劇結構性美元短缺。如此前分析的,目前能源供需平衡十分脆弱,不排除冬天油價「最後一漲」,同時增強美元「最後一漲」的動力。

4. 關注短期「強能源-強美元-弱購買力」的負循環

全球美元計的真實購買力可能繼續下行,從目前的製造業週期走勢判斷,不能排除下半年全球工業生產和貿易量同比收縮的可能性。中國出口雖然韌性強,但恐難以「獨善其身」。如果美元進一步升值,那麼歐洲、日本、韓國等大國美元購買力(進口需求)將進一步下探。而新興市場國家購買力的「消失」速度將成倍於OECD國家。雖然中美今年出口份額均上升,但如果全球貿易需求「縮量」壓力加劇,中國出口可能也難以支撐上半年的增速。

美元走強將收緊美國和全球的金融條件,加劇衰退風險。在此背景下,人民幣可能順勢貶值。更重要的是,中國促內需,尤其放鬆相關政策對消費的負面影響就會顯得更緊迫。

風險提示:海外衰退幅度超預期,能源短缺加劇。

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