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《大行報告》瑞銀降恆指目標至20,300點 首選股新納入國泰 剔出新地及長和
瑞銀髮表香港市場策略報告,基於該行近期下調對中國及香港GDP預測、企業業績期後下修盈利預測,決定下調對恆生指數目標預測由21,700點下修至20,300點,此基於於2022年至2024年每股盈利年均複合增長率8%及預測市盈率9.5倍作估值。該行亦下調對MSCI香港指數基本情境目標預測12%至9,900點。 該行按自下而上方式評估,料MSCI香港指數成份股於今年每股盈利增長6%(此前預測增長11%)及明年每股盈利增長14%(符合此前預測),在流動性緊張和經濟增長緩慢的背景下,該行繼續在香港市場採取防禦性策略,垂青具股息收益率和旅遊行業相關的股票。 由於盈利增長預期降低、中國宏觀擔憂和美國利率上升加劇,該行對MSCI香港指數未來12個月遠期市盈率估值,已從2022年12月的14.2倍顯着下調至目前的11.4倍。 監於其近期自由現金流量強勁,該行將國泰航空(00293.HK)添加到該行的港股首選名單中。另一方面,基於上半年盈利低於預期和股息風險,該行將長和(00001.HK)和新鴻基地產(00016.HK)從港股首選名單中剔除。 瑞銀港股最喜愛股份名單包括友邦(01299.HK)、新秀麗(01910.HK)、金沙中國(01928.HK)、國泰航空(00293.HK)、銀河娛樂(00027.HK)、長江基建(01038.HK)及香港電訊(06823.HK)。
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