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招商宏觀：短期內美國衰退預期不會顯著改變美聯儲政策偏緊態勢

格隆匯 07-08 09:46
格隆匯7月8日丨招商宏觀張靜靜團隊表示，短期內，美國經濟衰退預期不會顯著改變美聯儲貨幣政策偏緊的態勢，美聯儲貨幣政策態度通常有一定滯後性。中期來看，美聯儲貨幣政策或邊際轉向寬鬆，美國通脹壓力的緩和或將支持“滯脹”風險的下降以及美聯儲放鬆對於通脹的關注。短期美聯儲政策維持收緊、經濟基本面預期惡化，或帶來美股最爲動盪的時期，VIX波動率上升，美債收益率或以震盪爲主。中期美聯儲政策轉向後，美股或將反彈、美債收益率進一步下行。
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