美高梅中國(02282.HK)：Q3業績雖符預期，但業績復甦路途並不平坦，給予“增持”評級，目標價10.87 港元
機構：中泰國際
評級：增持
目標價：10.87 港元
20 年 Q3 經調整 EBITDA 符合預期
美高梅中國(2282 HK)公佈了 2020 年 Q3 業績，淨收入為 3.6 億港元(下同)，同比減少93.7%；博彩毛收入為 3.9 億(同比下跌 94.5%，環比增長 71.3%)，優於同業；經調整EBITDA 虧損 7.3 億(虧損環比收窄 17.5%)，符合我們預期。三季度虧損收窄，主要來自於1) 高端中場強勁的復甦需求，期內集團中場毛收入環比增長 121.0%；2) 經營開支環比再減少10.7%，反映較高的成本管理能力，但三季度貴賓廳及中場錄得較低的淨贏率，抵銷部分利好因素。然而，美獅美高梅的表現繼續令人失望，期內淨收入環比減少15.5%；經調整 EBITDA 虧損環比只收窄 7.7%，拖累整個集團業績。
10 月至今賭收持續改善
管理層於業績電話會上指出 1) 簽註重啟以來，10 月黃金週至今旅客數字正持續上升，本月第二週起各類客户的賭收進一步改善；2) 在高端中場強勁的復甦需求帶動下，10 月至今集團的 EBITDA 已超越了盈虧平衡點；3) 預計後續的復甦繼續由高端中場帶動；4) 暫時看不到中介人流動性對集團業務帶來影響，但會密切關注事態發展。
公司業績復甦路途並不平坦，集團在明年的競爭更激烈
Q3 業績證明公司進入復甦階段，不過由於內地近月加強對跨境資金流的監察，減慢了貴賓廳業務的復甦速度，但在高端中場的推動下，預計公司於第四季可錄得 EBITDA 盈利。雖然美獅美高梅南翼的酒店擴建工程仍在進行，並將在 21 年中開業，但我們仍然認為集團於明年起會遇到更激烈的競爭，包括來自“倫敦人”、“上葡京”及“澳門銀河三期”等部局開業廿所帶來的旅客分流壓力，公司業績復甦路途並不平坦。
下調目標價至 10.87 港元，給予“增持”評級
我們微調 2020-2022 年經調整 EBITDA-3.9%/-7.0%/+0.6%，預測 20-22 年經調整 EBITDA 為-15.1 億/44.2 億/57.2 億港元。目標價從 11.88 港元下調至 10.87 港元，對應 21 年及 22 年EV/EBITDA 分別為 13.9 倍及 10.0 倍，評級從“買入”下調至“增持”。
風險提示：(一)簽證政策收緊；(二)賭場續牌風險；(三) 疫情擴散風險
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
