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大行評級|瑞銀:估計內銀首季盈利大致持平 料信行建行跑贏
瑞銀髮表報吿指,內銀將於4月下旬開啟首季財報季,料首季基本面將面臨新的挑戰,包括收入和利潤率可能進一步下滑,淨利潤增長持平,各家銀行表現將進一步分化。該行對主要股份制商業銀行的看法更正面,預計收入增長將優於大型銀行,主要原因是淨息差按季收縮幅度較細,但手續費收入可能拖累較大。在温和削減成本和釋放撥備的情況下,該行預計主要股份制商業銀行(平安銀行除外)和六大國有銀行的税後淨利潤按年增長基本持平,分別按年增長0.2%和下跌0.2%。該行預料,信行及建行首季業績跑贏。當中,該行預計信行淨息差表現較穩定,收入按年增長率可能達到2%。與去年第四季一樣,該行料郵儲行和交行首季仍將出現税後淨利潤負增長。另報吿料工行和中行季內淨息差分別按年大幅下跌38個基點和32個基點,導致收入料分別按年下滑9.8%和5.3%,瑞銀對該兩家內銀更趨審慎。
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