《大行報告》中金:海外投資機構上季對中資股配置比例續降 美國機構配置比例爲2015年以來最低
中金髮表報告指出,去年第四季海外投資機構(主動+被動)持有中資股市值6,120億美元,較第三季減少538億美元或8.1%,大於同期MSCI中國指數4.4%的跌幅。主動型機構持有中資股市值下降8.9%至4,421億美元,相對於第三季爲4,853億美元,降幅大過指數跌幅,表明存在主動減持行爲。至於上季中資股的持倉比例(中資股/總資產)爲1.3%,較三季下滑0.3個百分點,創2017年以來最低水平。
該行提及,所有地區中,美國、香港(剔除中資機構)和英國持有中資股規模最大,佔比分別爲48%、18%和18%。相比第三季,美國資管機構持有中資股市值下降7.1%至3,033億美元,持倉佔比0.9%,較第三季的1.05%有所下滑,創下2015年以來最低水平。香港(剔除中資機構)下降8.7%至1,015億美元,持倉比例也從41.2%下降至37.7%,爲2019年第三季以來的最低水平。英國大幅下降10.7%至1,100億美元,持倉比例也從3%下滑至2.4%(2018年以來均值3.6%,當前已達這一時期以來最低水平)。
至於聚焦中資股持有規模前20大的主動型管理型機構(佔整體規模的21.8%),其於第四季持有中資股1,299億美元,較第三季1,406億美元回落7.6%。個股上,攜程(09961.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)、再鼎醫藥(09688.HK)與BOSS直聘(02076.HK)等增持最多;阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、美團(03690.HK)、中國平安(02318.HK)、京東集團(09618.HK)與百度(09888.HK)等減持最多。
此外,該行指2月人行超預期降準後,A股與港股市場明顯反彈,尤其是對流動性更爲敏感的增長科技板塊(如恆生科技與創業板領漲)。考慮到當前中國的實際利率尤其是相對融資成本仍然較高,此次降息不僅有其充分必要性且也能起到一定作用。但該行認爲僅靠當前幅度的降息並不足以徹底扭轉整體增長和市場的問題。當前環境下,財政政策仍起到決定性作用,輔以更大幅度的融資成本下行。
該行又稱,本次兩會政府工作報告中全年赤字率3%的目標以及外加發行1萬億元人民幣特別國債是基本符合市場預期。基於該行的測算,該組合可能會推動廣義赤字較去年新增1.9萬億元人民幣,或使財政脈衝轉正,但距離財政脈衝回到歷史高位所需要的5萬億至6萬億元人民幣淨增規模還有一段距離。因此相比總量政策,結構性政策更值得關注。
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