凌晨突發!人民幣跌超500點,中概股受挫,什麼情況?
隔夜,中國資產出現了一波較爲明顯的調整。其中,離岸人民幣兌美元加速下行,美股早盤一度跌破7.0606,盤中最大跌幅超500點。中概股也遭遇了一波下挫,納斯達克中國金龍指數收跌3.5%,個股方面,阿里巴巴跌5.4%,拼多多跌超7%,百度、京東跌超4%,騰訊粉單跌4%。
5月18日晚間,歐美交易時段開始後,離岸人民幣(CNH)兌美元加速下行,美股早盤一度跌破7.0606,盤中最大跌幅超500點,連續兩日刷新去年12月2日以來盤中低位。北京時間5月19日6點40分,離岸人民幣兌美元報7.0480元,連跌三日。近7個交易日以來,離岸人民幣累計跌幅已經超1200點。
其實,從5月5日至今,人民幣便出現了一波明顯跌勢,使得人民幣匯率再次落入7區間。這是2022年12月以來人民幣對美元即期匯率首次擊穿7這一整數關口。
同時,隔夜美股市場,中概股也遭遇了一波下挫。其中,$納斯達克中國金龍指數(.HXC.US)$收跌3.5%。$KraneShares中國海外互聯網ETF(KWEB.US)$和$Invesco中國科技ETF(CQQQ.US)$分別收跌4.2%和1.8%。
個股方面,披露業績後的阿里巴巴盤中一度大跌超6%,最終收跌5.4%;拼多多跌超7%,迅雷跌超5%,百度、京東、小鵬汽車、達達跌超4%,騰訊粉單跌4%,愛奇藝跌超3%,蔚來汽車、新東方跌超2%,網易、B站跌超1%。
但隔夜美股市場的整體表現卻較爲強勢,美股三大指數集體收漲,納指漲1.51%,創2022年8月22日以來收盤新高;標普500指數漲0.94%,創2022年8月29日以來收盤新高;道指漲0.34%。大型科技股普漲,奈飛漲超9%,英偉達漲近5%,亞馬遜漲逾2%,特斯拉、蘋果、微軟、谷歌漲超1%。
對於人民幣的走弱,金融時報援引專家觀點表示,隨着美國債務上限的談判有些許進展,拜登與國會領袖對儘快達成一致保持樂觀。由於避險情緒升溫,美元也受到提振。貨幣市場中,美元指數上漲是本輪人民幣兌美元出現一定幅度貶值的原因。
隔夜美股收盤,美元指數日內漲約0.6%,升至103.50上方;追蹤美元兌其他十種貨幣匯率的彭博美元現貨指數漲近0.6%,處於3月21日以來高位,均連漲三日。
社科院世界經濟與政治研究所助理研究員周學智表示,今年以來,受進出口貿易走弱影響,整個東亞經濟體的貨幣都有所貶值,日元兌美元、韓元兌美元貶值幅度均超過4%。在這種新格局下,包括中國在內的東亞經濟體會受到影響,進而拖累匯率表現。
展望下一階段,東方金誠首席宏觀分析師王青認爲,伴隨美聯儲本輪加息過程進入收官階段,加之銀行業危機影響下,美國經濟下行壓力進一步加大,後期美元指數持續上升的可能性不大。另外,當前國內美元存款利率已進入頂部區間,進一步下降的概率較大,後期人民幣匯率走勢將重回基本面主導。在今年海外經濟下行,國內經濟持續復甦前景下,人民幣不存在較大貶值空間。
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